Jump to content

Welcome to American Weather


Welcome to American Weather, serving top-notch weather discussion, info, and knowledge from professionals and amateurs across the United States. You must register to post in our forums, but this is a simple and free process. Please click the "Register Now" button to join or sign in now if you're already a part of the community.

Being a part of our community lets you:
  • Start new topics and reply to others
  • Subscribe to topics and forums to get automatic updates
  • Get your own profile and make new friends
  • Customize your experience here
  • Access to additional forums


2012 Global Temperatures


  • You cannot reply to this topic
274 replies to this topic

#246
MariettaWx

  • 4,071 posts
  • Joined December 9, 2010
°F

View PostFrivolousz21, on 6 April 2012 - 10:24 PM, said:

Channel 5 temps move back into 3rd place.

Third place wrt what? Do you have a link?

#247
Frivolousz21

  • Forerunner/Master Chief

  • 3,022 posts
  • Joined November 13, 2010
°F

View PostMariettaWx, on 8 April 2012 - 11:40 PM, said:


Third place wrt what? Do you have a link?


http://discover.itsc...e.csh?amsutemps




April has come in warmer than 2011 so far, but they are now right on top of each other. April 2011 was 0.11C+, so this one is shaping up to be a bit warmer in the .18 to .25C+ range, but it remains to be seen.

#248
Frivolousz21

  • Forerunner/Master Chief

  • 3,022 posts
  • Joined November 13, 2010
°F

Posted Image


The El Nino is starting to take off a bit.

#249
physicsguy21

  • 118 posts
  • Joined April 7, 2012

MJO has been favoring El Nino for awhile now, this is going to be an interesting year for global temperatures determining exactly where we are on the trend spectrum.

Many are calling for a global temperature spike given the warm La Nina years of late. We had a similar thing happen in 2001, with the neutral ENSO after a 3 year La Nina, yet it ended up bring the 2nd warmest year ever. A moderate El Nino later without a spike.

#250
Jonger1150

  • 1,320 posts
  • Joined November 7, 2011
°F

View PostFrivolousz21, on 13 April 2012 - 09:12 PM, said:

Posted Image


The El Nino is starting to take off a bit.

Anything that results in something different then this past winter is A-OK in my book.

#251
LakeEffectKing

  • "He measures snow using telephone poles, except this yr.

  • 1,949 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010
°F

Coldest March in 13 years according to GISS:

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year
2000 17 52 50 52 30 37 36 39 35 19 28 24 35 36 35 44 37 27 2000
2001 37 40 54 42 52 44 52 46 49 45 65 51 48 46 34 49 47 53 2001
2002 70 69 88 55 56 47 56 45 52 50 50 37 56 57 63 66 49 51 2002
2003 67 50 52 48 53 41 49 63 60 67 49 68 56 53 51 51 51 59 2003
2004 53 67 59 52 35 35 20 42 48 60 66 46 49 50 63 49 32 58 2004
2005 69 55 68 62 55 57 54 57 67 72 64 63 62 61 57 62 56 68 2005
2006 48 63 58 45 41 54 42 63 54 60 65 72 55 55 58 48 53 60 2006
2007 88 63 64 67 61 53 55 55 51 54 49 39 58 61 74 64 54 51 2007
2008 15 25 64 43 41 34 54 35 53 56 58 48 44 43 27 50 41 55 2008
2009 54 46 47 48 55 61 65 55 64 60 68 60 57 56 49 50 60 64 2009
2010 68 74 85 76 65 56 49 53 54 63 71 42 63 64 67 75 53 62 2010
2011 44 43 56 55 42 50 65 65 50 55 47 45 51 51 43 51 60 51 2011
2012 36 40 46********************************************* ********* 40*************** 2012
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year

#252
Jonger1150

  • 1,320 posts
  • Joined November 7, 2011
°F

View PostLakeEffectKing, on 16 April 2012 - 09:57 AM, said:

Coldest March in 13 years according to GISS:

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year
2000 17 52 50 52 30 37 36 39 35 19 28 24 35 36 35 44 37 27 2000
2001 37 40 54 42 52 44 52 46 49 45 65 51 48 46 34 49 47 53 2001
2002 70 69 88 55 56 47 56 45 52 50 50 37 56 57 63 66 49 51 2002
2003 67 50 52 48 53 41 49 63 60 67 49 68 56 53 51 51 51 59 2003
2004 53 67 59 52 35 35 20 42 48 60 66 46 49 50 63 49 32 58 2004
2005 69 55 68 62 55 57 54 57 67 72 64 63 62 61 57 62 56 68 2005
2006 48 63 58 45 41 54 42 63 54 60 65 72 55 55 58 48 53 60 2006
2007 88 63 64 67 61 53 55 55 51 54 49 39 58 61 74 64 54 51 2007
2008 15 25 64 43 41 34 54 35 53 56 58 48 44 43 27 50 41 55 2008
2009 54 46 47 48 55 61 65 55 64 60 68 60 57 56 49 50 60 64 2009
2010 68 74 85 76 65 56 49 53 54 63 71 42 63 64 67 75 53 62 2010
2011 44 43 56 55 42 50 65 65 50 55 47 45 51 51 43 51 60 51 2011
2012 36 40 46********************************************* ********* 40*************** 2012
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year

Dr. Masters won't even mention this one.

#253
dabize

  • 504 posts
  • Joined January 20, 2011
°F

View PostLakeEffectKing, on 16 April 2012 - 09:57 AM, said:

Coldest March in 13 years according to GISS:

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year
2000 17 52 50 52 30 37 36 39 35 19 28 24 35 36 35 44 37 27 2000
2001 37 40 54 42 52 44 52 46 49 45 65 51 48 46 34 49 47 53 2001
2002 70 69 88 55 56 47 56 45 52 50 50 37 56 57 63 66 49 51 2002
2003 67 50 52 48 53 41 49 63 60 67 49 68 56 53 51 51 51 59 2003
2004 53 67 59 52 35 35 20 42 48 60 66 46 49 50 63 49 32 58 2004
2005 69 55 68 62 55 57 54 57 67 72 64 63 62 61 57 62 56 68 2005
2006 48 63 58 45 41 54 42 63 54 60 65 72 55 55 58 48 53 60 2006
2007 88 63 64 67 61 53 55 55 51 54 49 39 58 61 74 64 54 51 2007
2008 15 25 64 43 41 34 54 35 53 56 58 48 44 43 27 50 41 55 2008
2009 54 46 47 48 55 61 65 55 64 60 68 60 57 56 49 50 60 64 2009
2010 68 74 85 76 65 56 49 53 54 63 71 42 63 64 67 75 53 62 2010
2011 44 43 56 55 42 50 65 65 50 55 47 45 51 51 43 51 60 51 2011
2012 36 40 46********************************************* ********* 40*************** 2012
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year

That is a MOST peculiar dataset you have there.

Are we to believe that mean temps for January ranged from 15 to 88 degrees (C? F? Reamur?).
Or is this some kind of a normalized measurement?
I know that these numbers must be some function of a global temperature, but are we to believe that 4 of the last 12 January measurements exceeded any July measurement AND that 2 other Januaries were colder than any July measurement?

Ague in Denmark............

#254
donsutherland1

  • 1,842 posts
  • Joined November 11, 2010
Donator

°F

View Postdabize, on 18 April 2012 - 05:20 PM, said:

That is a MOST peculiar dataset you have there.

Are we to believe that mean temps for January ranged from 15 to 88 degrees (C? F? Reamur?).

Those are in hundredths of degree Celsius above/below normal e.g., 55 = +0.55°C above normal.

#255
dabize

  • 504 posts
  • Joined January 20, 2011
°F

View Postdonsutherland1, on 18 April 2012 - 05:30 PM, said:

Those are in hundredths of degree Celsius above/below normal e.g., 55 = +0.55°C above normal.

Ahhh. Thanks.

Of course that means that the "low" reading for March 2012 is next to meaningless.........

#256
WeatherRusty

  • 1,566 posts
  • Joined December 28, 2010
°F

View Postdabize, on 18 April 2012 - 06:23 PM, said:


Ahhh. Thanks.

Of course that means that the "low" reading for March 2012 is next to meaningless.........

The numbers are anomalies, or deviation from normal baseline. Normal being a 30 year average.
base period: 1951-1980

Source HERE

#257
physicsguy21

  • 118 posts
  • Joined April 7, 2012

I am really looking forward to seeing how things play out with this potential El Nino. I predict this should play out much like the 2001-2003 period did, it is a good analog in atmospheric angular momentum hence LOD.

#258
Msalgado

  • 103 posts
  • Joined November 22, 2010

View PostJonger1150, on 16 April 2012 - 10:14 AM, said:


Dr. Masters won't even mention this one.

You sure about that?

#259
Frivolousz21

  • Forerunner/Master Chief

  • 3,022 posts
  • Joined November 13, 2010
°F

Posted Image


April of 2011 had a 0.12+ anomaly. 2012 is setting up to be quite a bit higher. Probably around 0.25+

#260
Jesse

  • 64 posts
  • Joined December 2, 2010

View PostFrivolousz21, on 28 April 2012 - 12:58 AM, said:

Posted Image


April of 2011 had a 0.12+ anomaly. 2012 is setting up to be quite a bit higher. Probably around 0.25+

Wooooooot! Go global warming!!

#261
Jonger1150

  • 1,320 posts
  • Joined November 7, 2011
°F

Why did Physicsguy get banned? I just looked at his last 5 posts and they looked pretty benign.

#262
PhillipS

  • 459 posts
  • Joined August 7, 2011

View PostJonger1150, on 28 April 2012 - 01:15 PM, said:

Why did Physicsguy get banned? I just looked at his last 5 posts and they looked pretty benign.

Don't know - but remember the Forum rule:
  • Do not post threads asking why another member was warned/banned
The ways of the mods are mysterious and beyond the ken of us mere mortals. Even though you and I often disagree I'd still hate to see you banned.

#263
Frivolousz21

  • Forerunner/Master Chief

  • 3,022 posts
  • Joined November 13, 2010
°F

View PostJesse, on 28 April 2012 - 10:58 AM, said:


Wooooooot! Go global warming!!

Posted Image

#264
Jonger1150

  • 1,320 posts
  • Joined November 7, 2011
°F

View PostPhillipS, on 28 April 2012 - 04:45 PM, said:

Don't know - but remember the Forum rule:
  • Do not post threads asking why another member was warned/banned
The ways of the mods are mysterious and beyond the ken of us mere mortals. Even though you and I often disagree I'd still hate to see you banned.

You can make posts within threads, just not titled subject threads asking why, at least that is how I read it.

#265
TerryM

  • 1,300 posts
  • Joined August 10, 2011

View PostWeatherRusty, on 18 April 2012 - 09:14 PM, said:


The numbers are anomalies, or deviation from normal baseline. Normal being a 30 year average.
base period: 1951-1980

Source HERE

That's an interesting data set - 18 years since any one month was below the 1951-1980 average.

Kids will vote this year that never experienced a 'normal' global temperature.

Terry

#266
WeatherRusty

  • 1,566 posts
  • Joined December 28, 2010
°F

View PostTerryM, on 30 April 2012 - 06:57 PM, said:


That's an interesting data set - 18 years since any one month was below the 1951-1980 average.

Kids will vote this year that never experienced a 'normal' global temperature.

Terry

'Normal' being a relative term as opposed to absolute. 1951-1980 holds no special significance as to what is normal in any absolute sense.

#267
Vergent

  • 540 posts
  • Joined July 29, 2011
Donator

°F

About the Lack of Warming


http://blog.chron.co...ack-of-warming/

should be required reading in this thread.

#268
LakeEffectKing

  • "He measures snow using telephone poles, except this yr.

  • 1,949 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010
°F

Significant jump in April RSS:


2011 4 0.107 -0.157 0.368 0.129 0.563 0.087 0.131 0.209 -0.000
2011 5 0.124 -0.027 0.232 0.183 0.812 -0.169 -0.465 0.173 0.074
2011 6 0.297 0.166 0.469 0.262 0.893 0.432 0.524 0.373 0.217
2011 7 0.328 0.233 0.539 0.211 0.584 0.608 1.427 0.415 0.237
2011 8 0.287 0.213 0.566 0.074 0.760 0.693 1.188 0.434 0.134
2011 9 0.288 0.155 0.523 0.190 1.002 0.927 0.259 0.383 0.190
2011 10 0.090 -0.061 0.358 -0.024 0.634 0.133 -0.074 0.206 -0.032
2011 11 0.033 0.025 0.103 -0.034 0.598 -0.009 0.326 0.076 -0.013
2011 12 0.116 0.028 0.237 0.086 0.578 -0.377 0.617 0.165 0.064
2012 1 -0.058 -0.112 -0.051 -0.005 0.633 -0.550 1.595 -0.075 -0.041
2012 2 -0.120 -0.157 -0.024 -0.182 1.208 -0.189 0.633 -0.071 -0.172
2012 3 0.074 -0.121 0.325 0.030 -0.086 0.115 3.300 0.143 0.003
2012 4 0.333 -0.119 0.918 0.224 1.424 -0.044 1.753 0.535 0.122

#269
Frivolousz21

  • Forerunner/Master Chief

  • 3,022 posts
  • Joined November 13, 2010
°F

View PostLakeEffectKing, on 4 May 2012 - 12:48 PM, said:

Significant jump in April RSS:


2011 4 0.107 -0.157 0.368 0.129 0.563 0.087 0.131 0.209 -0.000
2011 5 0.124 -0.027 0.232 0.183 0.812 -0.169 -0.465 0.173 0.074
2011 6 0.297 0.166 0.469 0.262 0.893 0.432 0.524 0.373 0.217
2011 7 0.328 0.233 0.539 0.211 0.584 0.608 1.427 0.415 0.237
2011 8 0.287 0.213 0.566 0.074 0.760 0.693 1.188 0.434 0.134
2011 9 0.288 0.155 0.523 0.190 1.002 0.927 0.259 0.383 0.190
2011 10 0.090 -0.061 0.358 -0.024 0.634 0.133 -0.074 0.206 -0.032
2011 11 0.033 0.025 0.103 -0.034 0.598 -0.009 0.326 0.076 -0.013
2011 12 0.116 0.028 0.237 0.086 0.578 -0.377 0.617 0.165 0.064
2012 1 -0.058 -0.112 -0.051 -0.005 0.633 -0.550 1.595 -0.075 -0.041
2012 2 -0.120 -0.157 -0.024 -0.182 1.208 -0.189 0.633 -0.071 -0.172
2012 3 0.074 -0.121 0.325 0.030 -0.086 0.115 3.300 0.143 0.003
2012 4 0.333 -0.119 0.918 0.224 1.424 -0.044 1.753 0.535 0.122

Posted Image

I have not followed the maps as much as you guys, but the forecasted GFS anomaly is pretty high? We can see that channel 5 temps have gone up faster and faster.

Posted Image



04/26 -999.000 253.009 252.924 253.030 252.911 252.782 252.820 252.765 253.138 252.741 252.994
04/27 -999.000 252.991 252.954 253.043 252.940 252.785 252.815 252.767 253.193 252.773 253.060
04/28 -999.000 252.969 253.014 253.058 252.942 252.805 252.805 252.833 253.242 252.825 253.061
04/29 -999.000 252.944 253.018 253.114 252.940 252.828 252.774 252.854 253.304 252.826 253.111
04/30 -999.000 252.924 253.024 253.102 252.932 252.886 252.769 252.891 253.312 252.892 253.126
05/01 -999.000 252.933 252.999 253.118 252.934 252.943 252.761 252.888 253.317 252.877 253.148
05/02 -999.000 252.963 253.010 253.082 252.937 252.984 252.812 252.899 253.313 252.931 253.197
05/03 -999.000 253.040 253.043 253.088 252.922 252.993 252.822 252.895 253.325 252.919 -999.000
05/04 -999.000 253.098 253.099 253.067 252.895 253.003 252.847 252.889 253.356 252.968 -999.000
05/05 -999.000 253.152 253.192 253.054 252.898 253.033 252.834 252.890 253.380 252.990 -999.000
05/06 -999.000 253.194 253.266 253.057 252.916 253.044 252.829 252.870 253.405 253.016 -999.000
05/07 -999.000 253.235 253.333 253.065 252.936 253.084 252.800 252.872 253.415 253.067 -999.000
05/08 -999.000 253.290 253.346 253.087 252.933 253.099 252.735 252.833 253.457 253.090 -999.000
05/09 -999.000 253.295 253.339 253.078 252.926 253.183 252.700 252.811 253.493 253.170 -999.000

#270
nzucker

  • 6,277 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010
°F

AMSU Channel 5 temps have started to decline again, and it looks as if we will quickly slip below 2003 levels.

Analysis of u-wind anomalies shows another increase in the trades approaching, so this may prevent El Niño warmth from reaching the globe too quickly:
Attached File  tradesmay7.png   289.2K   3 downloads

#271
LakeEffectKing

  • "He measures snow using telephone poles, except this yr.

  • 1,949 posts
  • Joined November 12, 2010
°F

UAH for April is in....anomoly increase from March, in line with RSS:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2011 01 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372
2011 02 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348
2011 03 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342
2011 04 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229
2011 05 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043
2011 06 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233
2011 07 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204
2011 08 +0.327 +0.321 +0.332 +0.155
2011 09 +0.289 +0.304 +0.274 +0.178
2011 10 +0.116 +0.169 +0.062 -0.054
2011 11 +0.123 +0.075 +0.170 +0.024
2011 12 +0.126 +0.197 +0.055 +0.041
2012 01 -0.090 -0.057 -0.123 -0.138
2012 02 -0.112 -0.013 -0.212 -0.277
2012 03 +0.110 +0.129 +0.092 -0.108
2012 04 +0.295 +0.411 +0.179 -0.120

#272
Frivolousz21

  • Forerunner/Master Chief

  • 3,022 posts
  • Joined November 13, 2010
°F

 LakeEffectKing, on 9 May 2012 - 10:38 AM, said:

UAH for April is in....anomoly increase from March, in line with RSS:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2011 01 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372
2011 02 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348
2011 03 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342
2011 04 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229
2011 05 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043
2011 06 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233
2011 07 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204
2011 08 +0.327 +0.321 +0.332 +0.155
2011 09 +0.289 +0.304 +0.274 +0.178
2011 10 +0.116 +0.169 +0.062 -0.054
2011 11 +0.123 +0.075 +0.170 +0.024
2011 12 +0.126 +0.197 +0.055 +0.041
2012 01 -0.090 -0.057 -0.123 -0.138
2012 02 -0.112 -0.013 -0.212 -0.277
2012 03 +0.110 +0.129 +0.092 -0.108
2012 04 +0.295 +0.411 +0.179 -0.120


Lol, not good for the temp contest.
Quick math says 0.100C+ now.

I think the average was .13C.











#273
Jonger1150

  • 1,320 posts
  • Joined November 7, 2011
°F

View PostLakeEffectKing, on 9 May 2012 - 10:38 AM, said:

UAH for April is in....anomoly increase from March, in line with RSS:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2011 01 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372
2011 02 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348
2011 03 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342
2011 04 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229
2011 05 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043
2011 06 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233
2011 07 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204
2011 08 +0.327 +0.321 +0.332 +0.155
2011 09 +0.289 +0.304 +0.274 +0.178
2011 10 +0.116 +0.169 +0.062 -0.054
2011 11 +0.123 +0.075 +0.170 +0.024
2011 12 +0.126 +0.197 +0.055 +0.041
2012 01 -0.090 -0.057 -0.123 -0.138
2012 02 -0.112 -0.013 -0.212 -0.277
2012 03 +0.110 +0.129 +0.092 -0.108
2012 04 +0.295 +0.411 +0.179 -0.120

Are these figures increases in temp or anomaly comparative to 30 year average?

#274
Frivolousz21

  • Forerunner/Master Chief

  • 3,022 posts
  • Joined November 13, 2010
°F

 Jonger1150, on 9 May 2012 - 03:32 PM, said:



Are these figures increases in temp or anomaly comparative to 30 year average?


They are UAH TLT anomalies. Its an average of the lower 10 kilomete of the atmosphere weighted towards the surface. With the 1981-2010 UAH as climo.


Giss uses 1950-1981 as climo. So UAH wont be as dramatic with the anomalys.



#275
Frivolousz21

  • Forerunner/Master Chief

  • 3,022 posts
  • Joined November 13, 2010
°F

View Postnzucker, on 7 May 2012 - 04:09 PM, said:

AMSU Channel 5 temps have started to decline again, and it looks as if we will quickly slip below 2003 levels.

Analysis of u-wind anomalies shows another increase in the trades approaching, so this may prevent El Niño warmth from reaching the globe too quickly:
tradesmay7.png


good call.


Advertisement





1 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users

Advertisement

Want to browse ad-free? Purchase our Gold Upgrade Package.