1528 replies to this topic

[packfan98]

I'll take member p004 please. It has as much chance as any of the others. No two are alike after 96 hours.

http://raleighwx.ame...rs/12zf186.html

[MariettaWx]

I'm not sure what's wrong with the Euro guys... What looks weird? It looks like the ULL gets absorbed into the cold front, why is that so weird? The air out in front of the front does not look abnormally cold considering a trough is moving out right before the UL and next cold front come through. Jmo but I'm just not seeing anything all that out of place.

[NGA WINTER]

This is model mayhem! We need snow desperately! And it's not looking good after 12z?

[Wow]

yeah, that would be nice. Its day 10 though. The storm in the Northeast and east Canada is impressive. I think this run gave them 2 or 3 snows .

Yeah, but that's the best look I've seen yet from the Euro with a developing -NAO pattern. Nice looking -AO set up there with the block over the pole.

[burgertime]

I'm not sure what's wrong with the Euro guys... What looks weird? It looks like the ULL gets absorbed into the cold front, why is that so weird? The air out in front of the front does not look abnormally cold considering a trough is moving out right before the UL and next cold front come through. Jmo but I'm just not seeing anything all that out of place.

To me it was a little weird with the 850 just kind of just sitting there from 204 - 210...but I guess that would kind of make sense giving the time of the day? It just seems with the cold front those 850's would more move in tandem with the sfc temps. I'm probably just talking nonsense though haha.

[burgertime]

I'll take member p004 please. It has as much chance as any of the others. No two are alike after 96 hours.

http://raleighwx.ame...rs/12zf186.html

Yep I would be just fine with that

[MariettaWx]

To me it was a little weird with the 850 just kind of just sitting there from 204 - 210...but I guess that would kind of make sense giving the time of the day? It just seems with the cold front those 850's would more move in tandem with the sfc temps. I'm probably just talking nonsense though haha.

I don't have access to the 6 hour maps so I'll take your word for it that something is amiss. The images I saw were the free ones at 24 hour intervals, so perhaps there is something weird going on at that frame.

[packbacker]

Yeah, but that's the best look I've seen yet from the Euro with a developing -NAO pattern. Nice looking -AO set up there with the block over the pole.

Yeah, it looks darn good. With this active pattern and what appears to be cold coming, eventually, we would have to hit something.

[packbacker]

I don't have access to the 6 hour maps so I'll take your word for it that something is amiss. The images I saw were the free ones at 24 hour intervals, so perhaps there is something weird going on at that frame.

Besides what burger/foothills pointed out there hasn't been any run to run consistency. The Euro is a great model, probably the best and with this crazy active pattern it's not going to be able to nail anything down, although I am hopping it's correct at 240 :-).

[Gastonwxman]

Really can't help but know for a fact that models are going to have the worst time of their life attempting to predict the pattern in the latter period. If it isn't the Euro suddenly cutting a system off way west or the GFS flip flopping with its storms and temperatures, it's something else. At least we still have plenty of time to monitor how things develop over the next few days before we can get an idea of how it all plays out for next week but right now it appears its anything goes with our weather, be it a massive rainstorm, a potential wintry event, etc. Still thinking from mid January and beyond is where things can get really exciting but who knows how the pattern will behave beyond the following week, let alone longer than 10 days and who gets in on the wintry stuff (if anything).

[burgertime]

I don't have access to the 6 hour maps so I'll take your word for it that something is amiss. The images I saw were the free ones at 24 hour intervals, so perhaps there is something weird going on at that frame.

Yea what ends up happening or how it looks anyways is you have 850's way ahead of the cold front and it just sort of sits around at 204 moves just a little east at 210 with the low tracking up the coast (which would argue it should push the 850 temps up?). Then the cold front comes and pushes everything out...if that makes sense.

[Wow]

If we can get a good, sustained 6-8 week cold and stormy pattern, that should be enough to "save" the season, so to speak.

[beanskip]

Sorry, but those maps depict neither a Western U.S. ridge (what ridging is there is waaaaaaaay too far west to do us any good) nor a useful block, as I indicated in my original post.

Here it is at 168, notice the trough near the Gulf of Alaska


Hour 288 has ridging building in the Pacific. Notice the trough is gone over the Gulf of Alaska


At 300 it's even more pronounced.

[fritschy]

Yep I would be just fine with that

Hey when I click on the 186 hr forecast it does nothing any help on what to do to get this to come up?

[fritschy]

I'll take member p004 please. It has as much chance as any of the others. No two are alike after 96 hours.

http://raleighwx.ame...rs/12zf186.html

What am I doing wrong? I can't get this to come up when I click on it.

[Gastonwxman]

What am I doing wrong? I can't get this to come up when I click on it.

Try a different browser (I'm using Opera) and see if it comes up. Before that though, refresh the page if you are able to at least jump to the site that the link goes to.

[burgertime]

What am I doing wrong? I can't get this to come up when I click on it.

Here you go..

[DaculaWeather]

Sorry, but those maps depict neither a Western U.S. ridge (what ridging is there is waaaaaaaay too far west to do us any good) nor a useful block, as I indicated in my original post.

OK, you stick to your story, I stick to mine.

[Brick Tamland]

This is model mayhem! We need snow desperately! And it's not looking good after 12z?

What else is new? The models seem to always have a terrible time when it comes to snow down here. They go back and forth all the time.

[Queencitywx]

Here you go..

Leave it to the GFS to have low pressure in Michigan and a coastal storm offshore.

[Cold Rain]

Here you go..

Once again, that big blue line is sitting right over my house. I'll try to keep it anchored in place for you guys out west.

[NGA WINTER]

I sure wish that member would verify!

[burgertime]

Leave it to the GFS to have low pressure in Michigan and a coastal storm offshore.

lol it actually had the same thing going on the 15th for Christmas. Low pressure in Michigan with snow in NC. Good ol' GFS.

[nrgjeff]

Regarding the (03 Jan 12Z) Euro 850 Ts hours 204-210 and ULL:

I'm not sure what's wrong with the Euro guys... What looks weird? It looks like the ULL gets absorbed into the cold front, why is that so weird? The air out in front of the front does not look abnormally cold considering a trough is moving out right before the UL and next cold front come through. Jmo but I'm just not seeing anything all that out of place.

To me it was a little weird with the 850 just kind of just sitting there from 204 - 210...but I guess that would kind of make sense giving the time of the day? It just seems with the cold front those 850's would more move in tandem with the sfc temps. I'm probably just talking nonsense though haha.

The UL shears out a bit as the next more progressive trough catches up. Still that is plenty of upward motion for the mountains. The Euro physics appear to be functioning correctly, but I won't put any chips on the forecast that far out.

The 850 charts are a result of the interaction between the UL and more progressive tough (#2). You'll get a little WAA ahead of #2 but the CAA behind #1 continues. The net is a static 850 zero line. Yes, billiard ball meteorology sometimes works, lol.

That being said I prefer the warmer GFS solution. Still golden for the mountains post-frontal, but probably not much with the lead UL. The Euro operational continues to rush a -AO which I doubt. In this case the GFS has been doing better due to its handling of the +AO. The upcoming pattern change looks cold in the West and Plains first with the AK ridge. Until the AO flips, the major fun will remain upstream.
I am liking the mountains more now though.

[Dewon Huggins - People WX]

Is it me or is the GFS for 12z not going past 114 hours?

[packbacker]

Not as dreadful, for sure..

[burgertime]

Regarding the (03 Jan 12Z) Euro 850 Ts hours 204-210 and ULL:



The UL shears out a bit as the next more progressive trough catches up. Still that is plenty of upward motion for the mountains. The Euro physics appear to be functioning correctly, but I won't put any chips on the forecast that far out.

The 850 charts are a result of the interaction between the UL and more progressive tough (#2). You'll get a little WAA ahead of #2 but the CAA behind #1 continues. The net is a static 850 zero line. Yes, billiard ball meteorology sometimes works, lol.

That being said I prefer the warmer GFS solution. Still golden for the mountains post-frontal, but probably not much with the lead UL. The Euro operational continues to rush a -AO which I doubt. In this case the GFS has been doing better due to its handling of the +AO. The upcoming pattern change looks cold in the West and Plains first with the AK ridge. Until the AO flips, the major fun will remain upstream.
I am liking the mountains more now though.

Thanks for the explanation! Always enjoy it when you post.

[burgertime]

Is it me or is the GFS for 12z not going past 114 hours?

Def. just you. It loaded up fine for me and others during the PBP.

[wh_adkins01]

Just posting this for sake of a smile...if only...

Attached Files

•  12zensp004p06192yay.gif   46.38K   5 downloads

[burgertime]

18z is running lets see what kind of solution it has

[Gastonwxman]

Def. just you. It loaded up fine for me and others during the PBP.

To be honest, I had a similar issue when I was attempting to follow the 12z GFS and instead went to use instantweathermaps. Does it on all of my browsers (Mozilla, Opera, and Explorer). If it loaded for you, I'm not entirely sure why it doesn't for certain folks. It was like this with the 0z Euro last night as well.

[burgertime]

To be honest, I had a similar issue when I was attempting to follow the 12z GFS and instead went to use instantweathermaps. Does it on all of my browsers (Mozilla, Opera, and Explorer). If it loaded for you, I'm not entirely sure why it doesn't for certain folks. It was like this with the 0z Euro last night as well.

Odd I know sometimes there are some caching issues with the maps...maybe that was it. Seemed from the PBP no one else was having that issue. I'm using SV maps though and usually they are money.

[GaffneyPeach]

I use this site. I'm not sure why more folks don't.



http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0

[buckeyefan1]

Once again, that big blue line is sitting right over my house. I'll try to keep it anchored in place for you guys out west.

Right over mine too I do like the rain total it is showing though but Goofy likes taking away my sprinkles once I get a little hope again

[jburns]

If we can get a good, sustained 6-8 week cold and stormy pattern, that should be enough to "save" the season, so to speak.

JMO but 2 weeks of sustained cold, if we are lucky. It just has that feel to it. Yeah I know, I'm not backing my opinion up with data. I've been through 64 winters. My whole body is an analog.