602 replies to this topic

[HurricaneJosh]

Since I'm starting the NATL thread, I have to start the EPAC, too-- especially because this is my personal pet basin.

The 2011 EPAC season contrasted sharply with the NATL season-- because it was solid quality. There were only 11 named storms, but a whopping 10 were hurricanes, and 6 were majors. (Also, 5 were Cat 4s!)

And of course there was Jova-- my angry little pet microcane that came ashore in a rural part of Mexico with a ferocious shriek late one dark, October night. Whatever category it was, Jova is one of my all-time personal-best cyclones-- a treasure in my portfolio.

So, what's 2012 going to bring us?

[HurricaneJosh]

The season starts in a little over a month-- woo hoo!

I always have high hopes for the EPAC. If we have an El Nino, my hope will be even higher. Just in the last seven years, three disastrous NATL seasons were counterbalanced by cool EPAC landfalls-- 2006 (John, Lane), 2009 (Jimena), and 2011 (Jova). Unfortunately, I didn't chase the 2006 cyclones-- that was the year I decided to officially add EPAC to my turf.

Here's a short highlights video from my Hurricane Jimena chase. I rode out a direct, bullseye hit from this 90-kt cyclone in a remote fishing village on the Baja Peninsula. It was a nice storm-- I liked it very much-- and I got good footage of the eyewall and eye passing through:

[icebreaker5221]

As I've said before, your videos from the East Pac are great Josh!

It's funny how El Nino's are supposed to be associated with good TCs to the East Pac and garbage in the Atlantic, and vise versa for Ninas, yet last year was a Nina and we saw the opposite. So maybe this year we get very few, but high quality, storms in the Atlantic while the East Pac gets a taste of double-digit Don clones ?

[HurricaneJosh]

As I've said before, your videos from the East Pac are great Josh!

Thank you so much.

It's funny how El Nino's are supposed to be associated with good TCs to the East Pac and garbage in the Atlantic, and vise versa for Ninas, yet last year was a Nina and we saw the opposite. So maybe this year we get very few, but high quality, storms in the Atlantic while the East Pac gets a taste of double-digit Don clones ?

Evil of you to even joke like that.

[aslkahuna]

The general consensus so far is for less active ATL season which brings in the inverse relationship with EPAC so maybe EPAC will be more active. Globally, the Southern Hemisphere has been definitely below the usual levels of overall activity while WPAC has already produced its first 'phoon so maybe the North Pacific will wake up this year.

Steve

[am19psu]

The ENSO 1+2 trends are a good sign that we might salvage a decent EPAC season

[HurricaneJosh]

There's a new invest, 90E! Looks like the season wants to start a few days earlier than planned.

[am19psu]

There are actually some decent westerly wind anomalies out near 120W. This probably has a 50/50 shot of developing next week.

P.S. I think you mean 90E, since 90P would be in the South Pacific.

[HurricaneJosh]

There are actually some decent westerly wind anomalies out near 120W. This probably has a 50/50 shot of developing next week.

P.S. I think you mean 90E, since 90P would be in the South Pacific.

Oops-- yeah. Fixed. Thx.

[icebreaker5221]

Actually looking fairly good right now. You can see the cyclonic rotation in the loop too.

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[HurricaneJosh]

Wow-- looks kinda awesome. Has that outflow thing goin' on.

[Superstorm93]

Invest 91E:

[Srain]

We have a Mandarin...

Attached Files

•  05122012_1240_f17_x_composite_90EINVEST_25kts-1009mb-90N-1049W_97pc.jpg   516.64K   0 downloads

[Srain]

There has been some speculation about a disturbance spinning up near the Yucatan in the longer range as the monsoonal trough become very active across Central America. The 12Z GFS now shows this feature in the EPAC where the Euro Ensembles have been sniffing development that past couple of days. Both models suggest some Pacific moisture will be thrown NE into the Bay of Campeche/Western Caribbean. We will see...

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•  05122012 12Z GFS gfs_wnatl_192_10m_wnd_precip.gif   80.34K   1 downloads
•  05122012 12Z GFS gfs_wnatl_192_850_vort_ht.gif   42.76K   0 downloads
•  05122012 12Z GFS gfs_wnatl_192_500_vort_ht.gif   38.16K   0 downloads

[HurricaneJosh]

What's interesting is that some of the models show this recurving N and NE, toward Mexico, which is unusual for early-season systems. But I also notice that the SHIPS isn't too enthused with this system-- barely making it a TS before weakening it.

[phil882]

What's interesting is that some of the models show this recurving N and NE, toward Mexico, which is unusual for early-season systems. But I also notice that the SHIPS isn't too enthused with this system-- barely making it a TS before weakening it.

Recurving TC's in the early season aren't that unusual, its just that if they make it too far west before recurving, there is pretty much no chance it will be able to survive due to far colder SSTs and strong vertical wind shear.

[HurricaneJosh]

Recurving TC's in the early season aren't that unusual, its just that if they make it too far west before recurving, there is pretty much no chance it will be able to survive due to far colder SSTs and strong vertical wind shear.

I'm not saying it doesn't happen, but significant impacts to the Mexican coast tend to be later in the season, when the cyclones start hooking back. Early and mid-season, it seems like they pretty-much move away from the coast. Obviously, there are exceptions. But if you look at the landfall data, you'll see.

[Srain]

I'd keep an eye SE of 90E. Deep convection has fired today and the Euro is very aggressive regarding development.

Attached Files

•  05122012 12Z Euro slp7.png   56.38K   0 downloads
•  05122012 12Z Euro Ensembles slp7.png   47.33K   1 downloads
•  05122012 12Z Euro Wind3285032and32mslp_North32America_240.gif   77.36K   2 downloads

[HurricaneJosh]

I'd keep an eye SE of 90E. Deep convection has fired today and the Euro is very aggressive regarding development.

Wow-- look at that. The Euro goes nuts with it!

I wasn't expecting to have to chase in May.

[phil882]

I'm not saying it doesn't happen, but significant impacts to the Mexican coast tend to be later in the season, when the cyclones start hooking back. Early and mid-season, it seems like they pretty-much move away from the coast. Obviously, there are exceptions. But if you look at the landfall data, you'll see.

Oh I agree... I'm just saying the synoptic pattern isn't that unfavorable for recurvature in May/Early June since you can still oftentimes get cutoff lows near Baja California. The main difference is the sea surface temperatures aren't supportive for a tropical cyclone above 15 degrees north so you probably won't get many substancial tropical cyclone landfalls.

In any event, while 90E has some potential to become a TC, its already near the stable air located just to its northwest, and the system in general will probably have a short lifespan before its killed off by cold SSTs. Things become more favorable in the latter half of the month, where the ECMWF is suggesting some development beyond the day 5 range near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. I think that period will be a lot more interesting to watch.

[Srain]

Well isn't that interesting...the GFS suggests E of the Yucatan today, but the Canadian finally jumps onboard the EPAC and the Euro after taking a siesta last night is back with a cyclone as well...

Attached Files

•  05132012 12Z CMC slp24.png   52.28K   1 downloads
•  05132012 12Z Euro Wind3285032and32mslp_North32America_192.gif   79.66K   0 downloads
•  05132012 12Z Euro Wind3285032and32mslp_North32America_216.gif   79.32K   0 downloads
•  05132012 12Z Euro Wind3285032and32mslp_North32America_240.gif   82.21K   0 downloads

[andyhb]

*cue Josh tingles*

[HurricaneJosh]

[Srain]

I see we have a Cherry with 90E.

[am19psu]

I see we have a Cherry with 90E.

It's got about 36 hours or so before it runs into stable air west of 110W. Probably about a 50/50 shot (or, you know, 60/40 )

[Ed Lizard]

I hope this works out for Josh... It'll be close.

[Srain]

Meh...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 AM PDT MON MAY 14 2012

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2012 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON FORMS AHEAD OF THE OFFICIAL SEASON START DATE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 105.9W
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[am19psu]

Meh...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 AM PDT MON MAY 14 2012

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2012 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON FORMS AHEAD OF THE OFFICIAL SEASON START DATE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 105.9W
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Meh, I guess.

[HurricaneJosh]

They keep it well offshore, I see. No recurve.

[am19psu]

They keep it well offshore, I see. No recurve.

Yeah, that's been the forecast for this one all along

[Srain]

Yeah, that's been the forecast for this one all along

Well other than the GFDL that is... The GFS flipped back to the EPAC for the medium range regarding some future development near the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the CMC maintained development as well. I did notice a hint of spin developing W of Costa Rica so the potential for a future 92E may be valid if the convection can continue and deepen over the next day or two as shear decreases.

[am19psu]

Well other than the GFDL that is...

The GFDL forecasted an EPAC storm to recurve too quickly? Wow, I never would have guessed that. Next thing, you'll be telling me that the Canadian overforecasts cyclogenesis.

[HurricaneJosh]

TS Aletta is born-- just a few hours before the official start of the season. It's not expected to get much stronger than a mid-range TS before dissipating in a few days on a W trek.

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[HurricaneJosh]

By the way, is someone updating the subtitle of the thread? No need to-- I can stay on top of it. If I need assistance, I will certainly request it.

[HurricaneJosh]

It's 15 May. The season has started...