297 replies to this topic

[Superstorm93]

18z GFS ensembles like a TC in the Caribbean as well

[andyhb]

Fairly impressive agreement for this early in the season and this far out...

[Superstorm93]

andyhb, on 13 May 2012 - 08:28 PM, said:

Fairly impressive agreement for this early in the season and this far out...

Would be nice to have the foreigners agreeing with the GFS, but with the lack of any interesting weather in the CONUS, I guess we'll just have to work with what we have for now.

Disturbance now looks to take shape later this week accoring to the latest GFS. We'll see what happens...

[phil882]

andyhb, on 13 May 2012 - 08:28 PM, said:

Fairly impressive agreement for this early in the season and this far out...

Superstorm93, on 13 May 2012 - 08:40 PM, said:

Would be nice to have the foreigners agreeing with the GFS, but with the lack of any interesting weather in the CONUS, I guess we'll just have to work with what we have for now.

Disturbance now looks to take shape later this week accoring to the latest GFS. We'll see what happens...

I can't buy the GFS, especially when the ECMWF is showing almost exactly what I discussed last week with the more favored basin being the East Pacific. Not only is it more climatologically favored, but the long range statistical forecasts from Paul Roundy show anomalous favorability for TCG in the East Pacific in late May into June.

It shall be interesting to see how things play out... although I have to tip my hat towards the ECMWF with the superior resolution and parameterizations that allows it to be better in the tropics.

[Superstorm93]

Yeah, EPAC TCG does seem much more promising with this pattern/period, but it's just something to look at until we have something of real interest.

Will be interesting to see which model folds first. Moneys on the GFS.

(By the way, that ECMWF resolution looks amazing, but just wait until the HWRF receives it's face lift in a few days!)

[OSUmetstud]

phil882, on 13 May 2012 - 09:21 PM, said:

I can't buy the GFS, especially when the ECMWF is showing almost exactly what I discussed last week with the more favored basin being the East Pacific. Not only is it more climatologically favored, but the long range statistical forecasts from Paul Roundy show anomalous favorability for TCG in the East Pacific in late May into June.

It shall be interesting to see how things play out... although I have to tip my hat towards the ECMWF with the superior resolution and parameterizations that allows it to be better in the tropics.

Phil, the EC does seem to be hinting at subtropical potential off the US SE Coast. The GFS ensemble MJO forecast looks rather favorable. How does the EC MJO forecasts look?

[wxmx]

OSUmetstud, on 13 May 2012 - 10:20 PM, said:

Phil, the EC does seem to be hinting at subtropical potential off the US SE Coast. The GFS ensemble MJO forecast looks rather favorable. How does the EC MJO forecasts look?

Not as favorable

 ALL_emean_phase_full.gif   18.37K   0 downloads

[am19psu]

Neither the Aussies nor Roundy show much wave activity on the Atlantic side.

http://cawcr.gov.au/...ps.5day.MJO.gif
http://www.atmos.alb...S_7.5N/2012.png

[HM]

_{Do these guys have just straight 200mb wind forecasts / CHI?}

[am19psu]

HM, on 14 May 2012 - 08:14 AM, said:

_{Do these guys have just straight 200mb wind forecasts / CHI?}

Not that I have seen. Roundy has some 300mb anomaly forecasts based on the MJO/ER/Kelvin signals, but it's difficult to diagnose equatorial divergence from them. The Aussie products are straight OLR forecasts.

[HM]

am19psu, on 14 May 2012 - 08:17 AM, said:

Not that I have seen. Roundy has some 300mb anomaly forecasts based on the MJO/ER/Kelvin signals, but it's difficult to diagnose equatorial divergence from them. The Aussie products are straight OLR forecasts.

That's too bad because that could occasionally be more useful than the classic OLR integrated forecasts. As for strictly CHI, I have nothing against the EWP technique, but it is way too simplified to be always useful.

[phil882]

HM, on 14 May 2012 - 08:14 AM, said:

_{Do these guys have just straight 200mb wind forecasts / CHI?}

am19psu, on 14 May 2012 - 08:17 AM, said:

Not that I have seen. Roundy has some 300mb anomaly forecasts based on the MJO/ER/Kelvin signals, but it's difficult to diagnose equatorial divergence from them. The Aussie products are straight OLR forecasts.

Mike Ventrice (http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/) has some nice zonal wind 200 hPa plots that use the GFS forecast in his Hovemoller Tag. I don't know if you were looking for statistical 200hPa/CHI forecasts though or from the operational guidance.





In addition, he also has a nice suite of velocity potential plots if you like the smoothed out fields a little better.

[am19psu]

phil882, on 14 May 2012 - 02:12 PM, said:

Mike Ventrice (http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/) has some nice zonal wind 200 hPa plots that use the GFS forecast in his Hovemoller Tag. I don't know if you were looking for statistical 200hPa/CHI forecasts though or from the operational guidance.

In addition, he also has a nice suite of velocity potential plots if you like the smoothed out fields a little better.

I like those. I'd like them even more if he had them for more than the GFS Op.

[carley5]

http://www.osdpd.noa...t.5.14.2012.gif

sst's have warmed a bit. id say 75% in the deep tropics are now above normal.

[wxmx]

carley5, on 14 May 2012 - 05:27 PM, said:

http://www.osdpd.noa...t.5.14.2012.gif

sst's have warmed a bit. id say 75% in the deep tropics are now above normal.

A 180° turnaround in the Atlantic pattern has changed things wrt SSTAs. It's too early to know if it will be sustained though.

 jan1-apr30.gif   18.59K   0 downloads

 may1-9.gif   21.1K   0 downloads

My guess is that TNA for May will have a decent rebound towards 0, if not slightly positive

[carley5]

im still thinking the season wont be as bad as some are saying. 13/8/3.

[Isopycnic]

From Facebook:
US National Weather Service Tampa Bay Florida
Hurricane Fun Fact: The formation of TS Aletta in the eastern Pacific yesterday ended a 41-day streak without a tropical storm anywhere in the world, which marks the longest span Earth has gone without a tropical storm in at least 70 years!

[HurricaneJosh]

Isopycnic, on 16 May 2012 - 05:40 AM, said:

From Facebook:
US National Weather Service Tampa Bay Florida
Hurricane Fun Fact: The formation of TS Aletta in the eastern Pacific yesterday ended a 41-day streak without a tropical storm anywhere in the world, which marks the longest span Earth has gone without a tropical storm in at least 70 years!

Wow. Crazy fact.