313 replies to this topic

[Arnold214]

sbos_wx, on 24 December 2011 - 11:20 AM, said:

Make it to the coast?

the coast of ME and NH yes...not sure about BOS b/c best WAA is north. Down your way, BL temps may be an issue too. I think your best potential will be in squalls a few hours either side of midnight with that potent short wave trough moving through. That's where I think SNE gets their coating.

[CT Rain]

Arnold214, on 24 December 2011 - 11:07 AM, said:

I think more people than not get at least a light coating. Like you said, windex params look good. Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if this had a bit of a brief stratiform look early on before any squally/showery stuff.

Yeah, I agree. Has a fairly classic windex look. Elevated interior especially C/NNE probably in for a Xmas surprise.

[CapeCodWeather.net]

Arnold214, on 24 December 2011 - 11:26 AM, said:

the coast of ME and NH yes...not sure about BOS b/c best WAA is north. Down your way, BL temps may be an issue too. I think your best potential will be in squalls a few hours either side of midnight with that potent short wave trough moving through. That's where I think SNE gets their coating.

it would be a nice SNE clipper if it were at a lower latitude. it's a potent system.

[Arnold214]

CT Rain, on 24 December 2011 - 11:28 AM, said:

Yeah, I agree. Has a fairly classic windex look. Elevated interior especially C/NNE probably in for a Xmas surprise.

If the squalls do materialize xmas night...that raises a flag for holiday travel concerns. Not just because of brief squalls...but the potential exists down your way for temps to go from mid 30s to freezing or below rather quickly...so if it snows...then you get ice.

[CT Rain]

Arnold214, on 24 December 2011 - 11:31 AM, said:

If the squalls do materialize xmas night...that raises a flag for holiday travel concerns. Not just because of brief squalls...but the potential exists down your way for temps to go from mid 30s to freezing or below rather quickly...so if it snows...then you get ice.

Yup... timing looks good for a flash freeze. I think there's a better chance of that northeast of here though closer to the best forcing. I'm not sure we'll get much of anything in CT.

[CoastalWx]

CT Rain, on 24 December 2011 - 11:33 AM, said:

Yup... timing looks good for a flash freeze. I think there's a better chance of that northeast of here though closer to the best forcing. I'm not sure we'll get much of anything in CT.

The WAA and synoptic forcing looks better for northern NE, but maybe we can get a band or two of squalls to come through near midnight with fropa. Obviously snow squalls are fickle, but the numbers are impressive to me, and also...the look on the soundings. Good PVA too. Although, I didn't look down in CT..just BOS.

[Arnold214]

CT Rain, on 24 December 2011 - 11:33 AM, said:

Yup... timing looks good for a flash freeze. I think there's a better chance of that northeast of here though closer to the best forcing. I'm not sure we'll get much of anything in CT.

I think you may be surprised. That short wave is pretty potent. YOu are in a good instability axis too (as far as TT's go - near 60!). I think you score some good squalls during the late evening. I could even see eastern LI getting in on it (pending LL temps).

[CT Rain]

Arnold214, on 24 December 2011 - 11:37 AM, said:

I think you may be surprised. That short wave is pretty potent. YOu are in a good instability axis too (as far as TT's go). I think you score some good squalls during the late evening. I could even see eastern LI getting in on it (pending LL temps).

Yeah it is. As Scooter said they're fickle... but I definitely wouldn't be surprised with a few good squalls.

[Arnold214]

CT Rain, on 24 December 2011 - 11:41 AM, said:

Yeah it is. As Scooter said they're fickle... but I definitely wouldn't be surprised with a few good squalls.

A ribbon of 55-60 total totals rips through ct with that s/w trough. heck, low prob at thunder too.

[CT Rain]

Arnold214, on 24 December 2011 - 11:42 AM, said:

A ribbon of 55-60 total totals rips through ct with that s/w trough. heck, low prob at thunder too.

Someone wake up Wiz.

[wxmanmitch]

Today's 12Z data looking good for a nice upslope event for the Berks and southern Greens between 00Z and 12Z Monday. There is plenty of low and mid level moisture per the 850 and 700 mb RH fields and a nice WNW wind along with TT indices in the low to mid 50s. Combined with strong PVA and decent synoptic scale forcing, it won't take much additional help from the terrain to wring out that moisture. The lack of any inversion should mean the east slope cashes in on some of this as well via spillover. Although these things don't always pan out, there may be some localized WWA criteria conditions in areas around here tomorrow night, especially on the Rensselaer Plateau, west side of the Taconics, Berks, and Greens.

IMO, the parameters for WNE upslope may be good enough that this could be one of those rare occasions where we actually see some light upslope snows on the west side of the N ORH hills and Monads as well. It less common for this area as the moisture supply is often used up by the Greens and Berks and the topographic relief isn't as large as it is out here, but I've seen it happen.

[dendrite]

CT Rain, on 24 December 2011 - 11:47 AM, said:

Someone wake up Wiz.

After that Bruins game last night his hangover index has a 60-80% of severe.

[mahk_webstah]

Arnold214, on 24 December 2011 - 11:15 AM, said:

I think there will be a period of light snow. The forcing isn't strong enough to go 1/2 mile moderate outside of snow showers/squalls. But I do think that later on in the afternoon you will see a 1-2 hr period of steady light snow...with the best chances to your northeast. Not saying there will be a solid wall to wall shield of echoes...but less of a showery appearance.

Thanks...that is cool. Maybe it will feel like a real winter storm moving in...love that feeling. Maybe this will feel finally like our winter is moving in. If the GFS is right, then it well might be that winter is moving in.

[CoastalWx]

dendrite, on 24 December 2011 - 11:52 AM, said:

After that Bruins game last night his hangover index has a 60-80% of severe.

His LI (Liver Index) is definitely below zero.

[CoastalWx]

Arnold214, on 24 December 2011 - 11:42 AM, said:

A ribbon of 55-60 total totals rips through ct with that s/w trough. heck, low prob at thunder too.

That's what caught my eye. At least we may not be fighting drier air like we sometimes are with these setups, which helps. Seems like we'll have good RH through a significant part of the column.

[sbos_wx]

If Eck and Will are on board...... so am i. Good discussion

[Arnold214]

^{lol new gfs crushes me wed.}

[dendrite]

CoastalWx, on 24 December 2011 - 11:57 AM, said:

His LI (Liver Index) is definitely below zero.

Rising stomach parcels?

[CoastalWx]

dendrite, on 24 December 2011 - 12:03 PM, said:

Rising stomach parcels?

Pretty good lapse rates in his esophagus.

[Dryslot]

dendrite, on 24 December 2011 - 11:52 AM, said:

After that Bruins game last night his hangover index has a 60-80% of severe.

I wonder what his 40's to goal ratio was

[Dryslot]

Arnold214, on 24 December 2011 - 12:03 PM, said:

^{lol new gfs crushes me wed.}

like

[wxeyeNH]

This windex potential has me a bit concerned. Got to drive from Central NH to Boston tomorrow have dinner and get back for our animals we will leave alone. I know these things. They can drop an inch or two of snow on the highway, flash freeze and lead to tons of accidents and long delays. Hope to get back here by 8pm or so, maybe I can beat them back but if Rt 93 freezes over with Christmas traffic Im screwed!

[twright86]

Pardon my ignorance what does "windex" mean?

[dendrite]

twright86, on 24 December 2011 - 12:15 PM, said:

Pardon my ignorance what does "windex" mean?

wintertime instability index

[mahk_webstah]

Arnold214, on 24 December 2011 - 12:03 PM, said:

^{lol new gfs crushes me wed.}

Should be a fun forecast for Tuesday night.
Warmer with winds from the south and moderate to heavy rain, lows rising to near 40, then dropping towards morning. OR
Snow developing and becoming heavy at times overnight. Heavy accumulation possible. Lows upper 20s.

[twright86]

dendrite, on 24 December 2011 - 12:22 PM, said:

wintertime instability index

Ah ha, thank you.

[Ginx]

ski MRG, on 24 December 2011 - 10:18 AM, said:

Merry Christmas Ginxxx!!!! Think there are any accumulations in my future?

Merry Christmas bro and yea should be a nice 1-3

[dendrite]

The 12z EC has a ribbon of > 0.10" from C VT/NH southward to about the northern MA border.

[CT Rain]

Now that's a good looking windex sounding.

Attached Files

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[CT Rain]

4km BTV WRF has nearly 0.5" liquid for upslope areas on the spine of the Greens tomorrow night.

4km NAM also has nearly 0.5" in same areas. Seems like a decent setup for the mountains to pick up a few inches.

[wxmanmitch]

CT Rain, on 24 December 2011 - 04:21 PM, said:

4km BTV WRF has nearly 0.5" liquid for upslope areas on the spine of the Greens tomorrow night.

4km NAM also has nearly 0.5" in same areas. Seems like a decent setup for the mountains to pick up a few inches.

BTV WRF looks like it puts down some spot 0.25" amounts here in the Berks too. I think this area may wind up getting at least a couple inches as well if this verifies.

[powderfreak]

CT Rain, on 24 December 2011 - 04:21 PM, said:

4km BTV WRF has nearly 0.5" liquid for upslope areas on the spine of the Greens tomorrow night.

4km NAM also has nearly 0.5" in same areas. Seems like a decent setup for the mountains to pick up a few inches.

Stowe village point 'n click (the 800ft elevation grid box) has 2-4" in it for Sunday night... you may have picked a good time to come to northern Vermont, haha. The one thing with orographics is you never really know for sure... it could be a dud with a dusting-1" or you could be piling up 4, 5, 6 inches of snow. If those QPF amounts are anywhere near correct though with our usual ratios that would be quite the dump.

[OSUmetstud]

really nice instability parameters as it passes BUF but it looks warm...probably rain changing to snow showers after it passes.

[sbos_wx]

Not even a mention of squalls in the box afd

[OSUmetstud]

looks a little warm for the coastal plain imo...could be decent for the elevated interior though.