128 replies to this topic

[jbcmh81]

pondo1000, on 18 January 2012 - 03:26 PM, said:

Awesome! Thanks Buck. Wow, 7.7? That must have been a "fun" winter. That is going to be tough to beat! I think CMH is at like 3.?? officially right now?

4.5"

[dilly84]

Made me laugh. Look at the qpf lol

WED 12Z 01-FEB 11.4 9.1 1016 97 100 0.65 570 558
THU 00Z 02-FEB 14.2 10.0 1012 95 49 0.84 568 558
THU 12Z 02-FEB 13.5 9.3 1008 98 69 0.32 563 557
FRI 00Z 03-FEB 14.7 9.3 1005 98 81 0.09 561 557
FRI 12Z 03-FEB 14.5 11.4 988 96 92 2.26 551 563
SAT 00Z 04-FEB -2.9 -10.5 1006 79 63 0.33 537 532
SAT 12Z 04-FEB -5.5 -3.5 1020 72 6 0.01 552

[dilly84]

jbcmh81, on 18 January 2012 - 05:45 PM, said:

4.5"

Ha! I'd like to know who does their measurrments

[ArmyGreens]

Looks like about 2" fell here today. First time I haven't seen grass this winter. Cool.

[dilly84]

We got anywhere between 2 - 2½" here. No grass and enough to shovel my drive. Too bad I've gotta go to Pennsylvania to work tonight lol

[ArmyGreens]

Heres to hopin that Ohio can cash in nicely before the t-storms come sunday night!

[buckeye]

ArmyGreens, on 19 January 2012 - 08:02 PM, said:

Looks like about 2" fell here today. First time I haven't seen grass this winter. Cool.

Looks like here in westerville only about an inch. The gradient was pretty steep right along the delaware/franklin county line on north. We had our grass covered with that last little one, more than this one, (at least IMBY).

should be an interesting slop storm tonight into tomorrow. I noticed they lowered all the temps. Probably end up with mostly sleet.

[ArmyGreens]

Well they upped our totals from 2-4 to 3-5 so you guys closer to columbus might be in a better position with some of the talk saying heavier snow totals heading south.

[buckeye]

ArmyGreens, on 20 January 2012 - 11:10 AM, said:

Well they upped our totals from 2-4 to 3-5 so you guys closer to columbus might be in a better position with some of the talk saying heavier snow totals heading south.

looks like the 850 0 line on the gfs is a tad south....just a bit north of i-70, but interestingly it collapses south while still a decent amount of precip around saturday morning. Maybe a snow to mix back to snow scenario here.

[buckeye]

hellllooooo,elllooooo, looooo anyone here? Our first winterstorm warning of the season wooohoooo. c'mon man wooohooo?

[Nic]

buckeye, on 20 January 2012 - 03:41 PM, said:

hellllooooo,elllooooo, looooo anyone here? Our first winterstorm warning of the season wooohoooo. c'mon man wooohooo?

Yep, maybe a few inches on the backside. Models have been trending cooler all day.

[BuckeyeSam]

Hard to get too excited about an ice storm with an inch of snow on top. Nice radar returns out around Dayton right now though, sleet?

[ArmyGreens]

BuckeyeSam, on 20 January 2012 - 04:07 PM, said:

Hard to get too excited about an ice storm with an inch of snow on top. Nice radar returns out around Dayton right now though, sleet?

I was wondering the same thing. looks like the heavier returns just a county to the west right now. Sittin at 19 here which would make any freezing rain instantly hazardous.

[Steve]

Wow..we must be dry..by the looks of the radar,we should be snowing here in Newark..Radar does look good!!

[BuckeyeSam]

ArmyGreens, on 20 January 2012 - 04:26 PM, said:

I was wondering the same thing. looks like the heavier returns just a county to the west right now. Sittin at 19 here which would make any freezing rain instantly hazardous.

Well one way or another we should see some type of precip falling in the next hour. I'm well south of you but still sitting at 23.

[Nic]

Steve, on 20 January 2012 - 04:34 PM, said:

Wow..we must be dry..by the looks of the radar,we should be snowing here in Newark..Radar does look good!!

Better radar link to see where it is actually snowing.

http://www.wundergro...f=9999&smooth=0

[Nic]

ArmyGreens, on 20 January 2012 - 04:26 PM, said:

I was wondering the same thing. looks like the heavier returns just a county to the west right now. Sittin at 19 here which would make any freezing rain instantly hazardous.

I don't know about that, critical thicknesses did not move much last update. I would say deleware will not get much mixing.

[Steve]

I say,let's have a busted forcast with no mixing issues..ALL SNOW please!!

[ArmyGreens]

000
FXUS61 KILN 202134
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
434 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS COMING TOGETHER OVER THE FA TONIGHT.
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN STREAM S/W IS
SLIPPING ACROSS INDIANA INTO WRN OH ATTM. STRONGER S/W KICKING OUT
OF THE PLAINS IS THE MAIN FOCUS AS IT CAUSES THE FORMATION OF SFC
LOW THAT WORKS E INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS IS THE
FEATURE THAT PUSHES THE WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION.

GFS STILL APPEARS TO THE BE THE COLDEST MODEL OVERALL...SUGGESTING
MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE...WHILE THE NAM...ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SCENARIO. IN THE
PAST IT SEEMS THAT THESE SYSTEMS KEEP THE SFC COLD AIR LOCKED IN
AND PULL MORE WARMER AIR IN ALOFT...SO LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER
SOLUTIONS.

FROM ABOUT I-70 SOUTH...FEEL THAT THE MAIN PCPN WILL BE FREEZING
RAIN. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING AROUND A .25 QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
QPF. NOT ALL OF THIS MAY BECOME ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT THINK THAT
IT IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL. FEEL THAT THE PCPN MAY START AS
SNOW...THEN HAVE SLEET MIX IN. THUS THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
MULTIPLE WEATHER TYPES...VERSUS A ICE STORM WARNING.

ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO...MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED WHERE THE
THICKNESSES ARE COLDER. LOOKS LIKE 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW THERE...SO
WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING. ACROSS KY SFC TEMPERATURES MIGHT
PUSH ABOVE FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS CUTTING DOWN ON ICE
ACCUMULATION...SO ADVISORY THERE ALSO.

THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A QUICK HITTER. 12Z MODELS HAVE COME IN
QUICKER WITH THE ENDING OF THE PCPN...ENDING W OF I-71 BEFORE SUNRISE
TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING PCPN INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN
THE SE.

WENT WITH THE HIRES WRF-ARW TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS TONIGHT. LOW 20S
IN THE NW TO AROUND FREEZING KY.

Hmmm...just seems to me that the air trended cooler than expected which would lean more towards a more snowier outcome.

[Nic]

Steve, on 20 January 2012 - 04:42 PM, said:

I say,let's have a busted forcast with no mixing issues..ALL SNOW please!!

Maybe it will bust that way for once?

[Nic]

ArmyGreens, on 20 January 2012 - 04:45 PM, said:

000
FXUS61 KILN 202134
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
434 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS COMING TOGETHER OVER THE FA TONIGHT.
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN STREAM S/W IS
SLIPPING ACROSS INDIANA INTO WRN OH ATTM. STRONGER S/W KICKING OUT
OF THE PLAINS IS THE MAIN FOCUS AS IT CAUSES THE FORMATION OF SFC
LOW THAT WORKS E INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS IS THE
FEATURE THAT PUSHES THE WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION.

GFS STILL APPEARS TO THE BE THE COLDEST MODEL OVERALL...SUGGESTING
MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE...WHILE THE NAM...ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SCENARIO. IN THE
PAST IT SEEMS THAT THESE SYSTEMS KEEP THE SFC COLD AIR LOCKED IN
AND PULL MORE WARMER AIR IN ALOFT...SO LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER
SOLUTIONS.

FROM ABOUT I-70 SOUTH...FEEL THAT THE MAIN PCPN WILL BE FREEZING
RAIN. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING AROUND A .25 QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
QPF. NOT ALL OF THIS MAY BECOME ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT THINK THAT
IT IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL. FEEL THAT THE PCPN MAY START AS
SNOW...THEN HAVE SLEET MIX IN. THUS THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
MULTIPLE WEATHER TYPES...VERSUS A ICE STORM WARNING.

ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO...MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED WHERE THE
THICKNESSES ARE COLDER. LOOKS LIKE 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW THERE...SO
WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING. ACROSS KY SFC TEMPERATURES MIGHT
PUSH ABOVE FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS CUTTING DOWN ON ICE
ACCUMULATION...SO ADVISORY THERE ALSO.

THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A QUICK HITTER. 12Z MODELS HAVE COME IN
QUICKER WITH THE ENDING OF THE PCPN...ENDING W OF I-71 BEFORE SUNRISE
TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING PCPN INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN
THE SE.

WENT WITH THE HIRES WRF-ARW TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS TONIGHT. LOW 20S
IN THE NW TO AROUND FREEZING KY.

Hmmm...just seems to me that the air trended cooler than expected which would lean more towards a more snowier outcome.

They were going with GFS earlier and then flip floped, inconsistent.

[JayPSU]

WAA is almost ALWAYS an overperformer here. I think we're looking at mostly sleet and freezing rain with this one. Actually, I predict we get an ice storm because my wife is almost 39 weeks pregnant and will probably go into labor during a ghastly ice storm!

[Hoosier]

FWIW, farther west, the warm air aloft has not been overmodeled and has been a tad underdone if anything.

[BuckeyeSam]

Light snow now

[ArmyGreens]

Flurries have started now. That must be some dry air based on what I see on radar returns.

[wxdudemike]

Hoosier, on 20 January 2012 - 05:00 PM, said:

FWIW, farther west, the warm air aloft has not been overmodeled and has been a tad underdone if anything.

Thanks. Looks like the GFS thermals up high are doing ok so far....Surface temps have been colder than forecast all day here though.


My latest take for central Ohio including my map: http://www.examiner....ossible-tonight

Thinking up to 1/3" of ice, however the HRRR has been bouncing around with slightly more than that.

[ArmyGreens]

Well the snow finaly got going here...I'd say moderate clip currently. Not much wind at all which has not been the case with past snows. Should accumulate nicely!

[Steve]

Wow..21 degrees with sleet and snow!!

[buckeye]

Steve, on 20 January 2012 - 06:33 PM, said:

Wow..21 degrees with sleet and snow!!

Looks like at least a couple hours if not more of a lull to our sw. That may allow temps to rise enough that when the precip starts again it's much closer to becoming rain. Just a pessimistic random thought.

[ArmyGreens]

Radar looks quite good through central indy and illinois. Any reports from Dayton area?

[Nic]

buckeye, on 20 January 2012 - 07:51 PM, said:

Looks like at least a couple hours if not more of a lull to our sw. That may allow temps to rise enough that when the precip starts again it's much closer to becoming rain. Just a pessimistic random thought.

There is no way there will be plain rain in this, best hope is to hope for cooler temps so it is sleet instead.

[buckeye]

Nic, on 20 January 2012 - 08:17 PM, said:

There is no way there will be plain rain in this, best hope is to hope for cooler temps so it is sleet instead.

how long have you lived in central Ohio son? Are you familiar with the term WTOD?

[ArmyGreens]

buckeye, on 20 January 2012 - 08:22 PM, said:

how long have you lived in central Ohio son? Are you familiar with the term WTOD?

I have only lived here nearly 3 years and this had me laughing because you can neve say "never" in Ohio! lol

[Nic]

buckeye, on 20 January 2012 - 08:22 PM, said:

how long have you lived in central Ohio son? Are you familiar with the term WTOD?

I am not familar with that term. I have lived in central ohio most of my life, although I am only 18. Many storms do turn to plain rain, I am pretty sure this one will not thickness values are already moving back south in IN,IL.


If it is that one saying

If you don't like the weather wait 5 minute, I have know of it

They say that everywhere, the weather changes quickly everywhere it is not specific to any region. lol

[buckeye]

Nic, on 20 January 2012 - 08:54 PM, said:

I am not familar with that term. I have lived in central ohio most of my life, although I am only 18. Many storms do turn to plain rain, I am pretty sure this one will not thickness values are already moving back south in IN,IL.


If it is that one saying

If you don't like the weather wait 5 minute, I have know of it

They say that everywhere, the weather changes quickly everywhere it is not specific to any region. lol

Im just mess'n with ya. WTOD = Warm Tongue Of Death. The Ohio river valley, forking off to the Scioto river valley makes an outstanding channel to funnel up the WTOD from the sw. That being said, I actually agree with you, plain rain is probably pretty remote with this one, (but never say never here)