Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 4.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

So which one is better at predicting this storm? The heavy moisture and dumping 12+ inches around I44 or 2-4 inches south of I40?...someone is going to have a busted "winter storm".

I'd go with the GFS, the NAM is a terrible model. The GGEM and Euro will run later tonight, if either support the NAM, it would probably be a miracle.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at the loop of H5 heights and vorticity through Tuesday morning, I count four separate shortwaves involved in this whole mess, with a plethora of phasing and interaction issues. Even though the NAM is an outlier for now, I feel like this is a situation in which the best we can do is say there's a range of possible solutions; pinning down one model solution as superior, even if supported by a couple other runs, is probably futile. I only wish I had the self control to wait until Sunday morning to begin even looking at this storm, which would probably be the logical course of action. :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at the loop of H5 heights and vorticity through Tuesday morning, I count four separate shortwaves involved in this whole mess, with a plethora of phasing and interaction issues. Even though the NAM is an outlier for now, I feel like this is a situation in which the best we can do is say there's a range of possible solutions; pinning down one model solution as superior, even if supported by a couple other runs, is probably futile. I only wish I had the self control to wait until Sunday morning to begin even looking at this storm, which would probably be the logical course of action. :lol:

What's the fun in that though?

I'd rather look at the 20+" of snow the NAM puts out, get all excited, get my hopes up, then have them crash back down the Earth.

Weather is a hell of a drug.

It hasn't gotten to the point where I wake up/stop what I'm doing every 6 hours for a new model run...... yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at the loop of H5 heights and vorticity through Tuesday morning, I count four separate shortwaves involved in this whole mess, with a plethora of phasing and interaction issues. Even though the NAM is an outlier for now, I feel like this is a situation in which the best we can do is say there's a range of possible solutions; pinning down one model solution as superior, even if supported by a couple other runs, is probably futile. I only wish I had the self control to wait until Sunday morning to begin even looking at this storm, which would probably be the logical course of action. :lol:

ks-chat.jpg

"To hell with your damn logic."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I only wish I had the self control to wait until Sunday morning to begin even looking at this storm, which would probably be the logical course of action. :lol:

I can relate. I have a close friend who is flying out of XNA on Tuesday morning. Normally a stickler about being where she is supposed to be on time, this is even worse because she really has to be at her destination on Tuesday. When TSA put out the special weather statement this afternoon, I was really hoping she would not read that....but of course she did, plus the forecast and even the discos.....and now she is consulting me to play out all these weather and travel scenarios. Each scenario ends with one of us saying "why don't we wait until Sunday, and then figure this out." :facepalm:

By Saturday afternoon I may need to get her a log in here and tell her to ask you guys. :popcorn:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

how come this far out, we don't have a good stance on this storm! Last year, for the blizzard we did!! ( And the NAM was the crazy one in that situation too)

I think the NAM had support though, right now the NAM doesn't have support for the crazy amounts its showing. As Brett said, there's a lot of interactions and stuff spinning out west and it all depends on how it all reacts and comes together. Euro starts in about 20 mins or so.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

how come this far out, we don't have a good stance on this storm! Last year, for the blizzard we did!! ( And the NAM was the crazy one in that situation too)

That was an outlier. In our little corner of the country, it is very often a photo finish. For example, the Christmas storm of 2009. The 00z runs on the 23rd showed Fort Smith getting a foot of snow, that was a consensus between the GFS and the evil one (the NAM) and was about 14 hours before the event was set to start. Well by the time we reached 4 pm that day, the precip was ending and we had yet to see a changeover. An hour later we had heavy snow because we ended up on the pivot point.

Just a little parable on not putting too much stock into anything this far out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...