611 replies to this topic

[Max]

WioFin, Lyndon State College.
89/77/13/0.12
Forecasting precipitation for this city is just going to be a pain. Good Luck to everyone!

[wxmeddler]

88 / 77 /7 / 0.06

Confident except for the winds and of course precip. .06 was like my "confidence" if you will for chance of precip.

[WhiteoutWX]

HI: 88 LO:74 WND:10 PRECIP: 0.41

Precip is a total crapshoot lol.

[Quincy]

I believe I put 86/76/10/0.19

went low on the high given that Monday they only got to 85F and the temps stopped rising before the rain even came.

is there a way to check my current forecast that's not editable? I didn't select the e-mail function and I totally forget, since I haven't participated in so long. I think I have to wait until 06z

[wxmeddler]

Quincy, on 26 September 2011 - 11:04 PM, said:

I believe I put 86/76/10/0.19

went low on the high given that Monday they only got to 85F and the temps stopped rising before the rain even came.

is there a way to check my current forecast that's not editable? I didn't select the e-mail function and I totally forget, since I haven't participated in so long. I think I have to wait until 06z

If you go to the website sidebar and select "The Challenge" then "Distribution" and plug in your school etc. Then just find your username in the list and there is your forecast. That info BTW comes out at 00:03z

I just noticed the standard deviation for all of the forecasters precipitation is .32"! Holy cow!

[WxMidwest]

88 76 15knots 0.47

[SEMIweather]

74 for the low is going to mess most people up

[Blizzard92]

Ugh, my forecast is a dud for today. Rest of the week I am a bit conservative for rain and wind, so I think that'll go better.

[Quincy]

I'm surprised at the low...now if the precipitation stays away, but temperatures stay on the low side, it could be very interesting. maybe Miami isn't as easy as we all expectec

[LocoAko]

I love the random 15kt gust this morning. Great. And the temporary 2F dip to 74F. lol.

[Dsnowx53]

Jake, I don't think gusts count, though. I went 90/75/9/.30.

And btw, I'm Dsnowx from Rutgers University.

[wxwatcher91]

Yeah it's the maximum sustained wind. So don't worry about the gust.

Buuut, I'm kinda hoping for a big ol' fat thunderstorm to park it over Miami for a couple hours this afternoon

[Quincy]

Winds have to be the highest sustained...probably won't go much higher unless they somehow manage a gusty thunderstorm. up to 82F, so barring any rain or shift to OVC and they'll make a run at the upper 80s. precip? might very well stay at zero...

[Blizzard92]

wxwatcher91, on 27 September 2011 - 10:36 AM, said:

Yeah it's the maximum sustained wind. So don't worry about the gust.

Buuut, I'm kinda hoping for a big ol' fat thunderstorm to park it over Miami for a couple hours this afternoon

Same here, took a bit of a risk; I did .75in of rain today.

[Dsnowx53]

It's up to 85 in Miami with partly cloudy skies...they might very well hit 90 today.

[L.B. LaForce]

Hmmm, models not showing the amount of precip they were last night, and that drop last night was stupid!

[Quincy]

87 and climbing...

[WxMidwest]

Yeah it's not gusts, it's max wind speed... Gonna be hard to get to 0.47, maybe something will pop up later here...

[Quincy]

WxMidwest, on 27 September 2011 - 12:31 PM, said:

Yeah it's not gusts, it's max wind speed... Gonna be hard to get to 0.47, maybe something will pop up later here...

based on satellite imagery and the latest high res forecasts, it's looking less and less likely...part of me was so tempted to put 0.00...it's one way to jump points in this contest, go out on a limb and forecast no precip when there seems to be a general consensus that it will rain.

[Chrisrotary12]

Damn it, was so tempted to go 0.00 on precip. O well. what are you going to do. Nice and toasty down there so far. 90 a possibility......

[wxmeddler]

Quincy, on 27 September 2011 - 12:38 PM, said:

based on satellite imagery and the latest high res forecasts, it's looking less and less likely...part of me was so tempted to put 0.00...it's one way to jump points in this contest, go out on a limb and forecast no precip when there seems to be a general consensus that it will rain.

I had 0.00 too but at the time I would of been screwed if it had rained any. Clear skies and subsidence could push it to 90. New 2 PM OB says 88 with a SE wind at 8 kts.

[icebreaker5221]

While widespread precip certainly appears to be less likely now, don't discount the seabreeze just yet.

[Chrisrotary12]

icebreaker5221, on 27 September 2011 - 01:00 PM, said:

While widespread precip certainly appears to be less likely now, don't discount the seabreeze just yet.

So we are down to hoping the seabreeze brings us some precip?

[Quincy]

what are the SSTs like down there? they don't seem to be having much of an effect...8/130 right now

[icebreaker5221]

Quincy, on 27 September 2011 - 01:05 PM, said:

what are the SSTs like down there? they don't seem to be having much of an effect...8/130 right now

About 85-86 F locally.

SSTs have fallen a bit recently, probably due to a combination of cloud cover and precip (and perhaps even some northerly return flow near the immediate coast and away from the Gulf Stream, but not sure about this).

So with highs > 88 F we should get some sea breeze activity, as we're beginning to see on sat and radar. Not sure if it will be enough to overcome large scale subsidence moving in tho.

[wxmeddler]

Quincy, on 27 September 2011 - 01:05 PM, said:

what are the SSTs like down there? they don't seem to be having much of an effect...8/130 right now

There is a CMAN bouy just S of Miami that is at 84°F.

P.S. Miami International's TDWR has been down since 16:28z.

[superjames1992]

KMIA was up to 88 as of 2 PM. Looks like my high of 91 may come close to verifying after all.

Now, precip on the other hand...

Looks like the highest sustained wind thus far today is 9 MPH.

[wxmeddler]

superjames1992, on 27 September 2011 - 01:37 PM, said:

KMIA was up to 88 as of 2 PM. Looks like my high of 91 may come close to verifying after all.

Now, precip on the other hand...

Looks like the highest sustained wind thus far today is 9 MPH.

There was a special METAR at 7:44 AM that had 9 kts.

New shower popped up about 6 miles west of the airport (along sea-breeze front), but not moving anywhere due to it being pushed back by sea-breeze.

[Max]

High looks to have gotten to at least 88F, we will have to wait for 0z metar to know for sure if it hit 89F or higher!

[wxmeddler]

Max, on 27 September 2011 - 02:09 PM, said:

<br>High looks to have gotten to at least 88F, we will have to wait for 0z metar to know for sure if it hit 89F or higher!

Daily Climate Report comes out at 5 PM here:

http://www.weather.g...dex.php?wfo=mfl

[phil882]

climate report is in... 88 is the high!

[Quincy]

a shower/thunderstorm cluster is dropping down and may be close enough to drop a bit of rain...

[phil882]

Quincy, on 27 September 2011 - 06:42 PM, said:

a shower/thunderstorm cluster is dropping down and may be close enough to drop a bit of rain...

keep those fingers crossed to those in the higher precipitation ranges.

[L.B. LaForce]

Day 2: 90 / 75 / 10kts / 0.00"

[phil882]

Day 2: 90F / 74F / 10kts / 0.00"