1348 replies to this topic

[winterymix]

iphone panarama of destruction


http://photoblog.msn...ado-devastation

[catoctin wx]

The Dude, on 23 May 2011 - 10:33 AM, said:

It's just you.

No such thing as an EF6.

just from watching the video's, it looked (to my untrained eye) comparable to the Tuscaloosa tornado

[Ed Lizard]

The Dude, on 23 May 2011 - 10:33 AM, said:

It's just you.

No such thing as an EF6.

No, there isn't. IIRC, the original Fujita scale was based on percentage of the speed of sound, or Mach number, so theoretically a F9, winds almost to the speed of sound, were possible. (Not saying physically possible, but the rating would exist.) F numbers were assessed based on damage, but the original idea would be an F-5 having winds approaching half the speed of sound.

[HurricaneJosh]

Re: the EF5 thing... People sometimes seem quick to call an EF5 when they see a neighborhood flattened, but of course so much depends on the quality of the construction, etc. As most people here know, a house can get "swept away"-- leaving a bare foundation-- by something much less than an EF5 if it's not properly attached to the foundation.

One other thing: when you see a wide, aerial shot of Moore, OK, or Greensburg, KS, you're not really looking at EF5 damage-- you're looking at EF3-EF4 damage, within which are a couple of isolated instances of EF5 damage. So, seeing these flattened neighborhoods in Joplin doesn't immediately say EF5 to me-- it says an obviously violent tornado went through, and it could have been an EF5. Let's see if they can find some specific evidence of it.

It seems pretty clear that this was at least an EF4.

[Ed Lizard]

We can speculate, but I imagine one of the more specialized NWS survey teams will be in the area in the next few days, and then we'll have expert opinion.

[HurricaneJosh]

Ed Mahmoud, on 23 May 2011 - 11:20 AM, said:

We can speculate, but I imagine one of the more specialized NWS survey teams will be in the area in the next few days, and then we'll have expert opinion.

Well of course. I would assume they're in there today.

[foster]

sojitodd, on 23 May 2011 - 08:59 AM, said:

I was not following this right as it happened, and can someone verify if Joplin had just a tornado warning, or if a tornado emergency was issued? I went through the Central Forum thread and do not remember seeing any tornado emergency?

It was warned some 15 minutes before it hit

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
517 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
  SOUTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT.

* AT 514 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  TORNADO NEAR RIVERTON...OR 4 MILES NORTH OF BAXTER SPRINGS...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BAXTER SPRINGS...CLIFF VILLAGE...DENNIS
  ACRES...DIAMOND...DUENWEG...DUQUESNE...FIDELITY...GALENA...IRON
  GATES...JOPLIN...LEAWOOD...LOWELL...REDINGS MILL...RIVERTON...
  SAGINAW...SHOAL CREEK DRIVE...SHOAL CREEK ESTATES...SHOAL CREEK
  ESTATE AND SILVER CREEK.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 13 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS TORNADO.

[catoctin wx]

Pretty amazing double rainbow that formed after the storm in Joplin

[HurricaneJosh]

on_wx, on 23 May 2011 - 11:27 AM, said:

It was warned some 15 minutes before it hit

JoMo, in one of his last posts, mentioned the sirens had gone off.

Also, in the now-famous video from the convenience store, you can overhear people talking about a warning before the tornado hits the building. My impression was that they didn't actually see the funnel coming-- it was large and rather foggy-looking-- but were taking cover due to the warning. I could be wrong, but that's my impression.

They had some warning for sure.

[Ed Lizard]

Semi-related to the warnings, on the TDC show about the April outbreak in MS/AL/GA, a pastor at a small church in Mississippi said he paid no mind to the sirens because they had gone off several times the previous couple of days.


If the science can improve to not only lengthen the lead time, but also reduce false positives, lives will be saved. What may appear the path of least regret, sounding the alarm on a weak signal, may ultimately do more harm than good.

I have no idea if this was an issue in Joplin.


And 15 minutes probably wouldn't be enough time to move all the sick and injured at the regional medical center from their rooms, which all presumably had windows.

[HurricaneJosh]

Ed Mahmoud, on 23 May 2011 - 11:33 AM, said:

And 15 minutes probably wouldn't be enough time to move all the sick and injured at the regional medical center from their rooms, which all presumably had windows.

No, but it's plenty of time for the average, able-bodied citizen to take cover, or for a teacher to bring children into the stairwells (or wherever they bring them).

Maybe because I'm from earthquake country, where we get zero warning-- catastrophes happen in the blink of an eye, like a bomb going off-- fifteen minutes just seems like a generous amount of time for making decisions and taking action.

[Ian]

HurricaneJosh, on 23 May 2011 - 11:17 AM, said:

Re: the EF5 thing... People sometimes seem quick to call an EF5 when they see a neighborhood flattened, but of course so much depends on the quality of the construction, etc. As most people here know, a house can get "swept away"-- leaving a bare foundation-- by something much less than an EF5 if it's not properly attached to the foundation.

One other thing: when you see a wide, aerial shot of Moore, OK, or Greensburg, KS, you're not really looking at EF5 damage-- you're looking at EF3-EF4 damage, within which are a couple of isolated instances of EF5 damage. So, seeing these flattened neighborhoods in Joplin doesn't immediately say EF5 to me-- it says an obviously violent tornado went through, and it could have been an EF5. Let's see if they can find some specific evidence of it.

It seems pretty clear that this was at least an EF4.

too much need for instant gratification these days.. honestly it doesnt really matter if it was an ef4 or an ef5.

[HurricaneJosh]

Ian, on 23 May 2011 - 11:39 AM, said:

too much need for instant gratification these days.. honestly it doesnt really matter if it was an ef4 or an ef5.

Well... I'm sure it matters a little to wx nerds. I know it matters to me. Like, I'm curious to know what they find and how they rate it. It was obviously a big event.

[Ian]

HurricaneJosh, on 23 May 2011 - 11:41 AM, said:

Well... I'm sure it matters a little to wx nerds. I know it matters to me. Like, I'm curious to know what they find and how they rate it. It was obviously a big event.

well, it's different when you're keeping a spreadsheet vs looking for a small splinter of your home.

[HurricaneJosh]

Ian, on 23 May 2011 - 11:42 AM, said:

well, it's different when you're keeping a spreadsheet vs looking for a small splinter of your home.

For sure. But that's what we do here, I guess: we analyze the mechanics and the metrics behind events which are sometimes catastrophic to humans.

[Ian]

HurricaneJosh, on 23 May 2011 - 11:44 AM, said:

For sure. But that's what we do here, I guess: we analyze the mechanics and the metrics behind events which are sometimes catastrophic to humans.

True. I guess I'm saying I'm fine waiting rather than guessing.

[HurricaneJosh]

Ian, on 23 May 2011 - 11:47 AM, said:

True. I guess I'm saying I'm fine waiting rather than guessing.

Yeah, I gotcha.

I do hope JoMo posts soon. It's a bit nerve-wracking! I'm sure he's fine-- and probably posting here is his last priority right now-- if they even have Internet connectivity in the city.

[Mallow]

Ed Mahmoud, on 23 May 2011 - 11:33 AM, said:

Semi-related to the warnings, on the TDC show about the April outbreak in MS/AL/GA, a pastor at a small church in Mississippi said he paid no mind to the sirens because they had gone off several times the previous couple of days.


If the science can improve to not only lengthen the lead time, but also reduce false positives, lives will be saved. What may appear the path of least regret, sounding the alarm on a weak signal, may ultimately do more harm than good.

I have no idea if this was an issue in Joplin.


And 15 minutes probably wouldn't be enough time to move all the sick and injured at the regional medical center from their rooms, which all presumably had windows.

Often, "false alarms" aren't false at all. Just because your house (or church) didn't get hit by a tornado when you heard the tornado siren doesn't mean there wasn't a tornado or good reason for the warning. There is a concerted effort to avoid "sounding the alarm on a weak signal". "Weak signal" is a pretty ill-defined term, though. I would venture to guess (out of my a**) that the number of "false positives" is less than 50%, which means if you hear a tornado siren, there's probably an associated tornado. The issue may be that the public doesn't necessarily realize that a confirmed warning doesn't mean that everyone who heard the siren got hit by a tornado. Indeed, only a small part of the warning area usually does withstand a direct hit.

[isohume]

Mallow, on 23 May 2011 - 11:51 AM, said:

Often, "false alarms" aren't false at all. Just because your house (or church) didn't get hit by a tornado when you heard the tornado siren doesn't mean there wasn't a tornado or good reason for the warning. There is a concerted effort to avoid "sounding the alarm on a weak signal". "Weak signal" is a pretty ill-defined term, though. I would venture to guess (out of my a**) that the number of "false positives" is less than 50%, which means if you hear a tornado siren, there's probably an associated tornado. The issue may be that the public doesn't necessarily realize that a confirmed warning doesn't mean that everyone who heard the siren got hit by a tornado. Indeed, only a small part of the warning area usually does withstand a direct hit.

This is true. Often a TOR will be issued for a remote area or sometimes the tornado only briefly touches down in a more populace zone. These tornadoes are hard, if not impossible, to quantify. They still tally up the FAR tho.

[OSUmetstud]

Mallow, on 23 May 2011 - 11:51 AM, said:

Often, "false alarms" aren't false at all. Just because your house (or church) didn't get hit by a tornado when you heard the tornado siren doesn't mean there wasn't a tornado or good reason for the warning. There is a concerted effort to avoid "sounding the alarm on a weak signal". "Weak signal" is a pretty ill-defined term, though. I would venture to guess (out of my a**) that the number of "false positives" is less than 50%, which means if you hear a tornado siren, there's probably an associated tornado. The issue may be that the public doesn't necessarily realize that a confirmed warning doesn't mean that everyone who heard the siren got hit by a tornado. Indeed, only a small part of the warning area usually does withstand a direct hit.

I think the FAR for tornado warnings is higher than 50%. I thought I remember something like 80 or 90%, but I could be wrong.

[Mallow]

OSUmetstud, on 23 May 2011 - 12:28 PM, said:

I think the FAR for tornado warnings is higher than 50%. I thought I remember something like 80 or 90%, but I could be wrong.

I wouldn't be surprised if it was a little higher than 50%, but I'd be surprised if it was that high.

[dan11295]

Obviously we do know yet if any one location had a high number of fatalities. Though from other forums I had read there were 4 at the hospital and 7 at a nursing home. Note that a nursing home was hit in Tuscaloosa also I believe, but IIRC that had been evacuated/taken some other shelter beforehand.

There is no question that the combination of time (Sunday afternoon) how fast it developed and the fact it was rain-wrapped were all contributing factors. From reviewing the warnings it was obviously warned, but none of the warnings indicated a large/violent tornado was possible until it was already mostly through the city.Only the last warning as it was entering the city included on-the-ground confirmation. Only so much you can do to warn when it spins up that fast.

[OSUmetstud]

Mallow, on 23 May 2011 - 12:30 PM, said:

I wouldn't be surprised if it was a little higher than 50%, but I'd be surprised if it was that high.

think about all the tornado warnings we see compared to the number of tornadoes...much more warnings.

[OSUmetstud]

http://www.nws.noaa....raph Update.pdf

FAR for tornadoes in 2008 was 75%.

[brettjrob]

Mallow, on 23 May 2011 - 12:30 PM, said:

I wouldn't be surprised if it was a little higher than 50%, but I'd be surprised if it was that high.

It is somewhere in the neighborhood of 75%.

[StormChaser4Life]

Does anyone know if a tornado emergency was issued for Joplin?

[Mallow]

OSUmetstud, on 23 May 2011 - 12:35 PM, said:

think about all the tornado warnings we see compared to the number of tornadoes...much more warnings.

OSUmetstud, on 23 May 2011 - 12:38 PM, said:

http://www.nws.noaa....raph Update.pdf

FAR for tornadoes in 2008 was 75%.

brettjrob, on 23 May 2011 - 12:43 PM, said:

It is somewhere in the neighborhood of 75%.

That's higher than I expected (I wonder if a decent percentage of those are just tornadoes that were never reported 'cause they happened in sparsely populated areas?)... but not so high that you should say "oh it's just another tornado warning". Even one in four is pretty scary odds for a tornado.

Obviously you all know this, but it's a matter of getting this notion to the general public. Just because you've been tornado warned before and didn't personally see anything doesn't mean you shouldn't take the next one seriously.

[Hoosier]

We've been incredibly unlucky this year with major tornadoes hitting large population centers. As far as fatalities, you really have to go back to 1953 (Waco, Flint/Worcester) to find something like this less than a month apart. Unfortunately, this type of thing may become less rare in the future with all the population growth and expansion.

[HubbDave]

Was this storm particularly fast moving? I have only so far seen one "on the ground" video from a chaser and it seemed to be tracking rather quickly. Would this contribute to more fatalities somehow?

90 fatalities so far, tying Worcester 1953... possibly many more to be found. Very sad

[HubbDave]

Another report I read had a quote from the governor saying that the storm was so loud that people could not likely hear the sirens.

[The Dude]

HubbDave, on 23 May 2011 - 01:27 PM, said:

Another report I read had a quote from the governor saying that the storm was so loud that people could not likely hear the sirens.

By the time it's that loud, it's too late for sirens.

[Hoosier]

HubbDave, on 23 May 2011 - 01:24 PM, said:

Was this storm particularly fast moving? I have only so far seen one "on the ground" video from a chaser and it seemed to be tracking rather quickly. Would this contribute to more fatalities somehow?

90 fatalities so far, tying Worcester 1953... possibly many more to be found. Very sad

Forward motion wasn't extremely fast but it wasn't a slow mover either. I think it was somewhere around 40 mph give or take.

[HubbDave]

I made a mistake on one of those posts... Worcester had 94 fatalities...

[cg41386]

StormChaser4Life, on 23 May 2011 - 12:57 PM, said:

Does anyone know if a tornado emergency was issued for Joplin?

I think just the warning posted on the previous page.

[foster]

StormChaser4Life, on 23 May 2011 - 12:57 PM, said:

Does anyone know if a tornado emergency was issued for Joplin?

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
542 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

MOC097-222300-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0030.000000T0000Z-110522T2300Z/
JASPER MO-
542 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
JASPER COUNTY...

...A TORNADO WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FOR NORTHERN
NEWTON...SOUTHEAST CHEROKEE COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN JASPER COUNTIES...

AT 538 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
JOPLIN...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF GALENA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AIRPORT DRIVE...ALBA...ATLAS...BROOKLYN
HEIGHTS...CARL JUNCTION...CARTERVILLE...LAKESIDE...NECK CITY...
NORTHEASTERN JOPLIN...OAKLAND PARK...ORONOGO...PURCELL AND WEBB CITY.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 13 AND 18 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS TORNADO.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.