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Chasecation!


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#1
Ellinwood

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Making this thread to provide a one-stop reference following the progress, media and thoughts of our 2011 Chasecation that will take Jason, Ian and I all over the middle of the country in pursuit of tornadoes.

Day 0 is today as we pack the car (Jason's Subaru Legacy) and head out from MD to the Southeast to play the frontal boundary in the AR/MS/LA area tomorrow afternoon and evening. After that it looks like we'll have a bit of a break where we have a few plans of things to do in the Plains states.

We will be out there until at least the 13th when it will be time to head back home. There is the potential to stay a bit longer, but the current plan it to be back in MD on the 15th.

Some links:

Webcam with audio while we're streaming live: http://www.weatherwarrior.net/TV.html

Ian's blog: http://www.ianlivingston.com/

My blog, with daily updates following our Chasecation: http://madusweather.com/

Jason's blog: http://www.weatherwarrior.net/blog/

Twitter pages:
Ian - http://twitter.com/islivingston
Mark - http://twitter.com/maduswx
Jason - http://twitter.com/WeatherWarrior1

I post some updates here as we go along... not sure what Ian and Jason plan on doing while we're out there.

#2
ThreeRedheads

  • No, this ain't my first rodeo~Boyd Crowder

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You guys are going to be gone a long time. Can't wait for the updates!

#3
Srain

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Texas DPS has been notified and a BOLO issued. Have fun.:devilsmiley:

#4
Aviationdave

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I hope the 3 of them love each other, thats a long time together lol

#5
forkyfork

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#6
The Dude

  • Yeah, I'm looking at you . . . put some pants on.

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Good luck guys. Looking forward to the pics and stories.

#7
Ian

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Thanks Forky.. you are always a joy.

#8
Jebman

  • Bring It ON!!!

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Ian you have got one IMPRESSIVE blog. Your cameo movie is outstanding! Really excellent blog - You should get into social media, you'd make a lot of money

And Jason!!!!!!! Weather Warrior Media!!!! http://www.youtube.c...erwarriordotnet

I love your snowmageddon coverage in Washington DC around the National Cathedral!!! I was blasting Chicago's I've been searching so long and watching your snowmageddon coverage at 1080 i and had a major snowgasm!!! WOW man just keep up the good work!!!

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#9
Ian

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Ian you have got one IMPRESSIVE blog. Your cameo movie is outstanding! Really excellent blog - You should get into social media, you'd make a lot of money


Thanks. I just restarted it. See if I can stay interested this time.

#10
Ellinwood

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A dying MCS gave us a nice greeting in the early daylight hours heading through central Tennessee... some asperatus clouds appeared on the horizon:

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Hopefully we can get some good storms to fire in Arkansas today so we can get the stream up and running.

#11
Ian

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Here's a quick pano of the clouds

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http://www.ianliving...tral-tennessee/

#12
PhineasC

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Good luck on the drizzle chase guys.

#13
Ellinwood

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Good luck on the drizzle chase guys.

SPC 10% TOR risk what?

(yes I am aware that the 5% from yesterday only has 1 TOR report at the moment).

#14
Ed Lizard

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Free NWS radar is flaky this morning, but I think the supercell now in Tarrant County will cross the front and become surface based in a couple of hours, if it maintains. It seems to have some component of movement deviant to the right. It looked a little more like a classic supercell when it was in Parker County, and perhaps it will resume a more NE heading.

Maybe somewhere near Mineola, between the interstates. If the cell maintains.


If anyone is awake. But I'd be in a hotel around SHV and getting an early start on the day.




WunderRadarLink

#15
Ian

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We're still about 6 hours out on general target in Ark, so hopefully things dont move too fast. Been dodging rain in TN last hour+.

#16
mapgirl

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Have a great time guys! Good luck!

#17
Srain

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SW of Little Rock would be my hunch. Good Luck.

#18
Srain

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:scooter:

Attached Files



#19
Ian

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We're coming up on Memphis, into warm sector now.

#20
VAwxman

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SPC 10% TOR risk what?

(yes I am aware that the 5% from yesterday only has 1 TOR report at the moment).


Phineas is not the sharpest tool in the shed sometimes. :lol:

Good luck to you guys!

#21
Kmlwx

  • Faith in the storms!

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I'm excited to see the Ellinwood and Ian fight video :lol:

#22
CT Rain

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Good luck guys!

#23
Ed Lizard

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SW of Little Rock would be my hunch. Good Luck.



The relatively less forested terrain of Western Lafayette County in Arkansas would be my bet. The 17Z SHV sounding seemed to have helicity and instability.


US 82 runs a long ways, but forests and restricted visibility would seem to cut down on chaseable terrain.

East-West isn't too bad NE Texas/Arkansas, with 82, I-20 and I-30, but the North-South roads, not so good, at least the ones I've been on, like US 59, a lot of towns and traffic lights.

#24
Ian

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We hit the Torn warned cell right before it was warned. Seemed outflow dominant.. Did tighten a bit later. Funnel reported right near us but didn't see anything.

#25
Ed Lizard

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TXK is in the cool sector now. GGG and SHV are/were still in the warm sector as of an hour ago...

17Z HRRR wasn't looking good for warm sector based storms during daylight.

Attached Files



#26
PhineasC

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Phineas is not the sharpest tool in the shed sometimes. :lol:

Good luck to you guys!

How many tornados do you think they have seen so far? Please use small words; I am dumb.

#27
Ian

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Here's a raw clip of the catch of the day (if the morning clouds were not). This was the first cell that got torn warned near memphis after it passed by us. We saw some rotation on radar prior and there was a funnel cloud report at our location though we're not sure about that one. Sort of run of the mill perhaps, but big for guys used to Mid-Atl storms. Some focus issues.. ;)



#28
Ed Lizard

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I recommend a trip to New Orleans during the next few quiet days.

#29
wxmeddler

  • I like my trees wet + bendy - with snow (or ice)

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Wow, lucky ducks.

#30
Ellinwood

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Driving to Kansas today... some plans in Wichita early tomorrow. Hopefully things will look a bit better for Friday.

#31
Ed Lizard

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Driving to Kansas today... some plans in Wichita early tomorrow. Hopefully things will look a bit better for Friday.



I'd have done Nawlins for a day or two.

Maybe fun in Wichita on Friday... For being 4 days out, seems to have some potential.

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Attached Files



#32
forkyfork

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I'd have done Nawlins for a day or two.

Maybe fun in Wichita on Friday... For being 4 days out, seems to have some potential.

Posted Image

low level winds aren't that strong... good for a derecho, though

#33
Ed Lizard

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low level winds aren't that strong... good for a derecho, though



Maybe we'll get meso boundary interactions.

#34
Ian

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I'll just be happy to get out of this cold rain we've been in off and on most of the time since we left. Cruising north through OK now.

#35
Ed Lizard

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KTOP and KICT AFDs not super confident, but I'm glass quarter full/silver lining optimist of at least one AmWx tornado or sheet-metal dinging hail storm.

THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY TURN BACK TO SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE INCOMING COLD FRONT BY LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GFS IS ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH
QPF AND WOULD BE CAUTIOUS USING THAT SOLUTION AT THE PRESENT TIME.

THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND BEYOND HAS SOME SUBSTANTIAL
QUESTIONS INVOLVING EVEN THE GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DURING THE
WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM IS LOW AT BEST. AT THIS TIME...HAVE GONE WITH A MAINLY DRY
FORECAST DUE TO THIS LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT
THE DETAILS TO BECOME MORE APPARENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT IN A WARMING TREND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ADVANCE OF A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.


Which one is Ian?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLXlwKbLjDM



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