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Post Storm Discussion & Analysis of Apr. 27 outbreak


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Saw this comment on Stormtrack about the death toll and its place in history:

..........given that the death toll of the two events ahead of it were in 1936 and 1925, the death toll numbers in this age of NEXRAD radars and early warnings make this the worst tornado outbreak of all time - put into that perspective.

The face that this is 2011 with all the warning, live shots, videos, chasers, and PLENTY of advanced warning, I'd tend to agree. If this outbreak had happened in 1974, how many fatalities would there have been? Can't imagine.

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Saw this comment on Stormtrack about the death toll and its place in history:

..........given that the death toll of the two events ahead of it were in 1936 and 1925, the death toll numbers in this age of NEXRAD radars and early warnings make this the worst tornado outbreak of all time - put into that perspective.

The face that this is 2011 with all the warning, live shots, videos, chasers, and PLENTY of advanced warning, I'd tend to agree. If this outbreak had happened in 1974, how many fatalities would there have been? Can't imagine.

This is what I pointed out yesterday. To have this high of a death toll is staggering given today's current technology and mass communication. I truly believe this is the worst outbreak in recorded history, not only for that reason, but simply because of the expanse of uninterrupted destruction with some of these tornadoes. And although the super outbreak of 74 covered a larger area, I think it is more extreme that so many tornadoes occurred in such a concentrated area. It goes to show you how insanely primed the atmosphere was that so many were able to form in such a small area relative to the size of the super outbreak.

Given the fact there are still dozens of people missing at least, which most probably didn't survive, I expect the death toll to exceed 74 as well. This will be the new benchmark in tornado outbreaks, make no mistake about that.

On a related note, it's awfully hard for me to watch coverage of this without getting teary eyed. Hearing and seeing the utter despair and pain of the victims is heartbreaking. We know the death toll is bad but there are countless more people who's lives have been completely upended. Many have no idea how to start over and no place to live. Then you have those who are not only in that situation but have lost loved ones. Imagine how it must feel to have lost a loved one while everything you have has been destroyed. The thought is unimaginable to me. And The shear number of people who's lives have been totally uprooted and destroyed in every aspect except death, is so depressing. I can't imagine what they are going through and it's a story that is being repeated by thousands across the south. I can only pray these people are somehow able to manage to restore what's left of their destroyed lively hood.

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Read this on another forum: The EF-4 tornado in Georgia may get upgraded to EF-5 in If it happens this will be Georgia's first ever Ef-5/F5 tornado dating from 1950-present. (I don't know if Georgia had an F-5 before 1950).

There is currently debate at FFC (forecasters, tornado expert Greg Stumpf) whether to upgrade this tornado to EF5 based on several well constructed homes a few miles northeast of Ringgold that were leveled, slabs completely swept clean of debris, and trees debarked down to stumps. This occurred along Cherokee Valley road. This vicious tornado crossed the Tennessee border shortly thereafter and moved on to cause death and destruction SE of Collegedale and near Cleveland. The Tennessee portion of the track is currently rated 190 mph high EF4 intensity WSO Morristown, but is also being considered for upgrade to EF5. Below is an aerial photo from WSFO FFC of the worst damage in Georgia. I've been studying Georgia tornadoes for over three decades and have never seen such complete destruction from a tornado in Georgia before.

Catoosa peak intensity (several homes in middle of photo)

http://www.srh.noaa..../catoosa088.JPG

Another aerial view from WSFO FFC

http://www.srh.noaa..../catoosa086.JPG

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Read this on another forum: The EF-4 tornado in Georgia may get upgraded to EF-5 in If it happens this will be Georgia's first ever Ef-5/F5 tornado dating from 1950-present. (I don't know if Georgia had an F-5 before 1950).

My God. That house in the left center of the first picture (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/ffc/catoosa088.JPG)...where IS it? I guess it's that debris pile about 100-125 feet up and to the right, behind the white SUV? That is absolutely mind-blowing. (No pun intended.)

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My God. That house in the left center of the first picture (http://www.srh.noaa..../catoosa088.JPG)...where IS it? I guess it's that debris pile about 100-125 feet up and to the right, behind the white SUV? That is absolutely mind-blowing. (No pun intended.)

It is going to depend on what type of homes these were, if they were brick homes vs module or older then that may be a case for upgrade to me though the more impressive thing is the row of trees to the left of the slab that has been reduced to stumps that takes ALOT of wind to do. I have seen that with my own eyes a few miles from my home here after the March 1984 outbreak, that tornado was offically rated a F4 with winds of 200 mph.

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Video of Glade Spring, VA, damage on Facebook

Appalachian Power photo gallery of Glade Spring, VA, damage on Facebook

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCxeN6fvYjg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_rR51OpV70

1:15 AM

04/28/2011 Tornado Glade Spring Washington, VA *** 3 FATAL, 50 INJ *** EF3. MAX WIND 140 MPH. SMALL CHURCH DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO RESIDENTIAL AREA AND TO BUSINESSES. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

From: EMERGENCY MNGR

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iMEhskWDhk

post-1466-0-36333400-1304093848.png

10:56 PM

04/27/2011 Tornado Camp Creek Greene, TN *** 7 FATAL, 33 INJ *** EF2. NEAR CAMP CREEK WHICH CAUSED SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND SEVERAL FATALITIES AND NUMEROUS INJURIES. MAX WIND SPEED 115 MPH.

From: EMERGENCY MNGR

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Elsewhere...

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1045 PM EDT THU APR 28 2011 ...EF-4 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN HAMILTON...BRADLEY...AND POLK COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS COMPLETED AN ASSESSMENT OF THE STORM DAMAGE THAT OCCURRED IN HAMILTON...BRADLEY...AND POLK COUNTIES. THE TORNADO REACHED AN INTENSITY OF A STRONG EF4 IN SOUTHEAST HAMILTON COUNTY WITH A MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 190 MPH. THE TORNADO COMPLETELY LEVELED SEVERAL HOMES IN HAMILTON COUNTY...AND PRODUCED EXTENSIVE DAMAGE IN BRADLEY COUNTY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN POLK COUNTY. 150 HOMES WERE ESTIMATED TO HAVE DAMAGE IN HAMILTON...AND BRADLEY COUNTIES...WITH NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN POLK. THE PATH WIDTH OF THIS TORNADO WAS 800 YARDS OR ROUGHLY ONE HALF OF A MILE. THE TOTAL LENGTH OF ITS TRACK WAS 35 MILES. PRELIMINARY REPORTS INDICATE 13 FATALITIES...8 IN HAMILTON COUNTY...AND 5 IN BRADLEY COUNTY. STORM SURVEY COMPLETED BY: TIM TROUTMAN...WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST...AND METEOROLOGIST ERIC HOLWEG.

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It is going to depend on what type of homes these were, if they were brick homes vs module or older then that may be a case for upgrade to me though the more impressive thing is the row of trees to the left of the slab that has been reduced to stumps that takes ALOT of wind to do. I have seen that with my own eyes a few miles from my home here after the March 1984 outbreak, that tornado was offically rated a F4 with winds of 200 mph.

From Google Maps, they look like pre-fab modular homes.

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Read this on another forum: The EF-4 tornado in Georgia may get upgraded to EF-5 in If it happens this will be Georgia's first ever Ef-5/F5 tornado dating from 1950-present. (I don't know if Georgia had an F-5 before 1950).

I know it may not be comparing apples to apples, but I think in order to upgrade to an EF-5, you'd really have to take into consideration the construction and compare to other events from the past. While the damage in that picture is extreme, I'm not sure it's as devastating as some of the pics from Moore, OK in 1999. Of course that tornado (to the best of my knowledge) still holds the measured wind speed record. They're talking on Stormtrack about how homes in some areas such as OKC/Wichita/Kansas City etc.... are "constructed" to a higher standard than your typical home in rural Alabama or Georgia due to a higher incidence of tornado outbreaks. I'm not sure if that's a fair statement since there are nice and crappy homes in lots of different areas though. Anyway, the Ringgold, Ga video sure does look the part, that's for sure.

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Saw this comment on Stormtrack about the death toll and its place in history:

..........given that the death toll of the two events ahead of it were in 1936 and 1925, the death toll numbers in this age of NEXRAD radars and early warnings make this the worst tornado outbreak of all time - put into that perspective.

The face that this is 2011 with all the warning, live shots, videos, chasers, and PLENTY of advanced warning, I'd tend to agree. If this outbreak had happened in 1974, how many fatalities would there have been? Can't imagine.

One must also consider population trends from then until now as well though. Millions have migrated south and west since these years, but you are probably right.

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That picture out of Catoosa county showing the concrete slabs is likely not EF-5 or even EF-4 damage. I would expect the cars to be much more mangled and thrown further than they appear to be in that picture. For example, near the top of that picture there are a pair of houses that are gone but it appears that the cars are still in the driveway/garage compartment.

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That picture out of Catoosa county showing the concrete slabs is likely not EF-5 or even EF-4 damage. I would expect the cars to be much more mangled and thrown further than they appear to be in that picture. For example, near the top of that picture there are a pair of houses that are gone but it appears that the cars are still in the driveway/garage compartment.

I'm not sure if we can determine from the photo if those vehicles originated from that garage. Most likely, but given the devastation, it's really tough to tell what's what. Strong EF4, maybe EF5 in spots. Again, that's all it takes right?

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It is going to depend on what type of homes these were, if they were brick homes vs module or older then that may be a case for upgrade to me though the more impressive thing is the row of trees to the left of the slab that has been reduced to stumps that takes ALOT of wind to do. I have seen that with my own eyes a few miles from my home here after the March 1984 outbreak, that tornado was offically rated a F4 with winds of 200 mph.

Here is the 'before' shot and then the after...

post-5832-0-33986600-1304100095.jpg

post-5832-0-07866000-1304100241.jpg

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Some of those look to have crawl spaces and foundations. Aren't modulars usually set on a concrete slab?

its strange to see those 2 slabs with no debris and wiped clean then the 2 houses near the woods with only minor looking damage. just incredible power and unexplained destruction.

edit the trees are down between the 2 houses in the top left of the pic. just incredible they weren't wiped out as well.

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On the second view you can see the house with the pool in the back is also wiped clean. I cant tell if they are all modular or not but the one with the pool doesnt look to be and it is also completely gone. Again looking at these photos its close to what one would expect a EF5 to look like if the homes are well built and also the tree damage looks impressive but I dont think they use tree damage to classify EF5.

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This is what I pointed out yesterday. To have this high of a death toll is staggering given today's current technology and mass communication. I truly believe this is the worst outbreak in recorded history, not only for that reason, but simply because of the expanse of uninterrupted destruction with some of these tornadoes. And although the super outbreak of 74 covered a larger area, I think it is more extreme that so many tornadoes occurred in such a concentrated area. It goes to show you how insanely primed the atmosphere was that so many were able to form in such a small area relative to the size of the super outbreak.

Given the fact there are still dozens of people missing at least, which most probably didn't survive, I expect the death toll to exceed 74 as well. This will be the new benchmark in tornado outbreaks, make no mistake about that.

On a related note, it's awfully hard for me to watch coverage of this without getting teary eyed. Hearing and seeing the utter despair and pain of the victims is heartbreaking. We know the death toll is bad but there are countless more people who's lives have been completely upended. Many have no idea how to start over and no place to live. Then you have those who are not only in that situation but have lost loved ones. Imagine how it must feel to have lost a loved one while everything you have has been destroyed. The thought is unimaginable to me. And The shear number of people who's lives have been totally uprooted and destroyed in every aspect except death, is so depressing. I can't imagine what they are going through and it's a story that is being repeated by thousands across the south. I can only pray these people are somehow able to manage to restore what's left of their destroyed lively hood.

I too have struggled with this. Maybe it's my proximity to my neighbor states or the "southern Family" approach to life. Undoubtedly it's also the fact that we've not really been able to see and experience it like this, in almost real time no less. But something else I've been witnessing is the amazing empathy and selfless aid being demonstrated by an incredible number of people - from service men and women to college kids doing whatever it takes to get to these people and offer whatever they can. Too see the photo of the man holding his injured infant in Pleasant Grove...seeing him be overwhelmed with what had to be a mixture of joy, terror, shock, etc...personally, I think for the first time in my life I am finding myself emotionally involved with people I will never meet. At the same time, I'm extremely encouraged by the volume of selfless behavior being demonstrated by those unaffected or involved.

My oldest son whom is 7 asked me yesterday, why I was sad (I was looking through the Pleasant Grove photos at the time). I explained to him that I was looking at some pictures of places that had been "really hurt" by Wednesday's weather and that I was sad for the families and people. He paused for a while and then went to his room. This morning, he had placed a box full of his toys and baseball cards - even some candy - on my night stand which read "to the sad family". Even he knew something terrible had taken place.

My wife called about 2 hours ago to tell me he'd checked out a book from his school library about tornadoes today. Things like this can also shape character.

...sorry if this is in the wrong place.

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My wife called about 2 hours ago to tell me he'd checked out a book from his school library about tornadoes today. Things like this can also shape character.

...sorry if this is in the wrong place.

No way, I think that's a great story......if we can get the grandparents to watch the baby on Saturday night, my wife and I are going to go down to help for a day and a half volunteer and help out. We've never had the opportunity to help in a situation like this before, may be something to look back on and tell the kids some day. I'll post some updates if we end up going.

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I too have struggled with this. Maybe it's my proximity to the my neighbor states or the "southern Family" approach to life. Undoubtedly it's also the fact that we've not really been able to see and experience it like this, in almost real time no less. But something else I've been witnessing is the amazing empathy and selfless aid being demonstrated by an incredible number of people - from service men and women to college kids doing whatever it takes to get to these people and offer whatever they can. Too see the photo of the man holding his injured infant in Pleasant Grove...seeing him be overwhelmed with what had to be a mixture of joy, terror, shock, etc...personally, I think for the first time in my life I am finding myself emotionally involved with people I will never meet. At the same time, I'm extremely encouraged by the volume of selfless behavior being demonstrated by those unaffected or involved.

My oldest son whom is 7 asked me yesterday, why I was sad (I was looking through the Pleasant Grove photos at the time). I explained to him that I was looking at some pictures of places that had been "really hurt" by Wednesday's weather and that I was sad for the families and people. He paused for a while and then went to his room. This morning, he had placed a box full of his toys and baseball cards - even some candy - on my night stand which read "to the sad family". Even he knew something terrible had taken place.

My wife called about 2 hours ago to tell me he'd checked out a book from his school library about tornadoes today. Things like this can also shape character.

...sorry if this is in the wrong place.

I was about the same age as your son when I experienced the Xenia tornado. As bad as the situation was, it was simply amazing to watch everyone helping everyone rebuild the community in every aspect you could imagine. This is what we do best as a nation when we put our hearts in it. :wub:

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