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Invest 91L


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#1
Ivanhater

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BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201104201829
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011041918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912011
AL, 91, 2011041918, , BEST, 0, 214N, 576W, 25, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011042000, , BEST, 0, 221N, 581W, 30, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011042006, , BEST, 0, 226N, 589W, 30, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011042012, , BEST, 0, 228N, 598W, 35, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 105, 0, 0, 105,
AL, 91, 2011042018, , BEST, 0, 232N, 608W, 35, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 105, 0, 0, 105, 1013, 150, 105, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

Posted Image

#2
MJW155

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C'mon S. Florida; one time!

Anything in April is exciting though.

#3
Ivanhater

  • 179 posts
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12z Euro valid for Friday

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#4
Srain

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I do not expect this to be a Ana 2003 reduex.

#5
28storms

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#6
Ed Lizard

  • Hege Fund Manager

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259

WHXX01 KWBC 201901

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1901 UTC WED APR 20 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912011) 20110420 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110420 1800 110421 0600 110421 1800 110422 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 23.2N 60.8W 23.7N 62.5W 24.1N 64.0W 24.1N 64.6W

BAMD 23.2N 60.8W 24.8N 57.4W 27.5N 55.8W 30.5N 55.2W

BAMM 23.2N 60.8W 24.1N 61.1W 25.6N 61.6W 26.9N 61.7W

LBAR 23.2N 60.8W 24.1N 60.6W 25.3N 60.7W 26.7N 60.5W

SHIP 35KTS 36KTS 34KTS 31KTS

DSHP 35KTS 36KTS 34KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110422 1800 110423 1800 110424 1800 110425 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 23.6N 65.3W 21.8N 68.2W 21.3N 73.0W 21.9N 77.7W

BAMD 33.5N 53.2W 41.4N 38.1W 50.1N 21.3W 55.1N 12.1W

BAMM 27.2N 61.8W 24.8N 63.6W 23.3N 66.8W 23.3N 69.4W

LBAR 28.1N 59.9W 29.9N 56.4W 30.1N 51.8W 30.1N 50.2W

SHIP 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

DSHP 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 23.2N LONCUR = 60.8W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 22.6N LONM12 = 58.9W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 21.4N LONM24 = 57.6W

WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 105NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 105NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 105NM

$$

NNNN


Still waiting for the HWRF run that shows a major menacing South Florida.

#7
k***

  • subjective mob

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does this count as one of the 28 storms?

#8
Ed Lizard

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does this count as one of the 28 storms?



Who, pray tell, is predicting 28 storms?

#9
MJW155

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Who, pray tell, is predicting 28 storms?


I think he's asking if it counts if the storm gets a name.

#10
28storms

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does this count as one of the 28 storms?

http://28storms.com/name/

#11
am19psu

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This is like the first GFS run that shows 2" of snow for Philly on October 3rd

#12
Ivanhater

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Lemonized

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201935
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT WED APR 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO HAS DEVELOPED SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR ITS CENTER. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT02 KNHC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY...
OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$
FORECASTER BEVEN

#13
flwxwatcher45

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This is like the first GFS run that shows 2" of snow for Philly on October 3rd


Yes, you can also be sure the NAM will be mentioned in this thread before the day is out.:whistle:

#14
rainstorm

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the best thing is it wont just beebop out to sea like the 2010 season. this season will be much more interesting.

#15
Ed Lizard

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the best thing is it wont just beebop out to sea like the 2010 season. this season will be much more interesting.



Have you looped the satellite on it? It is pretty disorganized, and has fairly warm cloud tops. That, and April tracks of weak barely/non tropical systems, is that really correlative to JAS storms?

#16
Scott747

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:(

Not very encouraging...

Posted Image

#17
wi_fl_wx

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Would be happy if it at least brought us some T-storms to South Florida. The winter weather here is about as exciting as living in a desert.

#18
wi_fl_wx

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Would be happy if it at least brought us some T-storms to South Florida. The winter weather here is about as exciting as living in a desert.

#19
OKpowdah

  • Sam Lillo

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:(

Not very encouraging...



Might not be a bad idea to take a look at hr 24-48 before skipping ahead to the end of the run

#20
flweathernerd

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Would be happy if it at least brought us some T-storms to South Florida. The winter weather here is about as exciting as living in a desert.


Amen to that. Last time I got a Tropical Storm (Bonnie), I didn't even know about till it had gone past since I didn't have internet. I just thought it was a windy day. So weak!

#21
am19psu

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This pretty much tells the story why Invest 91L won't develop after the upper low passes by...

Posted Image

So does this...

Posted Image

#22
phil882

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Convection still looks pretty meager, but I'd say if its got a shot to become anything more than a weak non-tropical low, the next 12-24 hours will be its shot. It doesn't look half bad if you forgive the fact the deepest convection is only around -50 degrees C.

Posted Image

#23
am19psu

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Convection still looks pretty meager, but I'd say if its got a shot to become anything more than a weak non-tropical low, the next 12-24 hours will be its shot. It doesn't look half bad if you forgive the fact the deepest convection is only around -50 degrees C.

Or that it has a cold front :devilsmiley:

#24
U_Thant

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Or that it has a cold front :devilsmiley:


...and a baroclinc leaf :devilsmiley: :devilsmiley: :devilsmiley:

#25
phil882

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Laugh at it all you want... but 91L wants some attention. Seems like the ULL just to the west is providing some temporary relief from the shear.

Posted Image

#26
U_Thant

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Laugh at it all you want...

Attached Files



#27
am19psu

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I wouldn't want to be anywhere near it if I was a mariner, but this is not even close to being tropical.

Posted Image

#28
phil882

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I wouldn't want to be anywhere near it if I was a mariner, but this is not even close to being tropical.




It certainly doesn't look like its tropical by any stretch, but an argument could be made that its trying to make a run at subtropical status. Latest TWO raised the probability to 20% but prospects don't look good beyond 24 hours. In addition, NHC mentioned winds are now below gale force, so in the unlikely event it does become subtropical, it might not even be a STS.

Posted Image

#29
Srain

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Avila doesn't seem to be too worried about a need to classify this disturbance...




#30
isohume

  • Model Chaser

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Avila doesn't seem to be too worried about a need to classify this disturbance...

Whew...I can get on with my day now.

#31
am19psu

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It certainly doesn't look like its tropical by any stretch, but an argument could be made that its trying to make a run at subtropical status. Latest TWO raised the probability to 20% but prospects doing look good beyond 24 hours. In addition, NHC mentioned winds are now below gale force, so in the unlikely event it does become subtropical, it might not even be a STS.

Subtropical storms have to have at least some symmetry. This is a convectively enhanced baroclinic low. I mean, look at the MWs. It clearly has a temperature gradient across it. On IR, you can see the typical occluded structure straight of Bjerknes. This isn't an Andrea situation, at least not until the upper low cuts off, which isn't modeled at all. Until it does that, it's just an extratropical low.

#32
Srain

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Whew...I can get on with my day now.



But...there are two lows swirling around a big low...:yikes:

Attached Files



#33
isohume

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But...there are two lows swirling around a big low...:yikes:

Well as long as Avila isn't worried, I'm not worried.

#34
phil882

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Subtropical storms have to have at least some symmetry. This is a convectively enhanced baroclinic low. I mean, look at the MWs. It clearly has a temperature gradient across it. On IR, you can see the typical occluded structure straight of Bjerknes. This isn't an Andrea situation, at least not until the upper low cuts off, which isn't modeled at all. Until it does that, it's just an extratropical low.


Can you point me to a link where you are getting your microwave imagery? I had previously been using the NAVY site, but its been down recently. Just looking for a new resource Posted Image

The multiple vortices are pretty cool to look at on visible this morning.

#35
am19psu

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Can you point me to a link where you are getting your microwave imagery? I had previously been using the NAVY site, but its been down recently. Just looking for a new resource Posted Image

The multiple vortices are pretty cool to look at on visible this morning.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi



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