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Arctic sea Ice Extent


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#4026
TerryM

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I used to worry about the possibility that AGW would block formation of NADW by increasing meltwater release from "old" sea ice and Greenland glaciers (a' la the Younger Dryas).

Guess it isn't unfolding that way.........


That possibility was what prompted me to look into the situation last year.

Not sure this is a damn bit better.

#4027
dabize

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That possibility was what prompted me to look into the situation last year.

Not sure this is a damn bit better.


http://www.yr.no/pla...rnøya/long.html

No - a forecast temp range of -2/+1C (29-34F) for a Svalbard station over 4 days in February can't mean anything good.

We'll get colder than that in Eastern MA, and some of us are seeing crocuses.

#4028
The_Global_Warmer

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I came across this article awhile back i wonder if the process is still going on in the Beaufort.
http://www.scienceda...20104142117.htm



Thanks for posting that.

I am going to try and look into it some more.

One thing is for sure after looking at hundreds of these buoys profiles. The technology and resolution has gotten much better. But another more striking and obvious thing is this layer of warm water between the fresh water(surface) and the higher salinity water(surface) really started to show up after 2003(expecially in the beaufort).



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You can see ITP32 ran from Oct 5th 2009 to Feb 9th 2010. You can see the fresh water layer thicken as the cold season went on, even as the buoy moved south. The Surface layer actually goes all the way down to 175M or so over this region. That warm layer is just trapped warm water below the fresh water surface, either from another region, the summer sun, or possibly just recycled warmth trapped from prior summers.



Below is one from September 7th 2006 to roughly early September 2007. You can see The river of warmth under neath the ice. This is also the same 2007 summer that the Navy reported

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http://imb.crrel.usa...mil/buoysum.htm

That is the site that has the buoy recording the huge jumps in bottom ice melt that started in 2007.


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Summer ice melt has been measured at 26 sites, since the International Geophysical Year in 1957. Measurements were made in the summers of 1958, 1959, 1976, 1998, and every year since 2000. The locations of these sites during the summer melt season is illustrated in the map below. The sites can be grouped into three broad geographic regions; the Beaufort Sea, the North Pols, and Intermediate. Both surface and bottom melting is consistly larger in the Beaufort Sea than near the North Pole. Bottom melt in the Beaufort Sea has increased dramatically in recent years.



this is just the tip of the iceberg so to speak. The Russians already released scientific data that came from the ministry of science or whatever they had going. But they are now releasing all of the military data, the British are doing it as well.

We can see just in the small samples of 1957, 58, 59 that melt in those summers was very low. Which also indicates a different kind of arctic then.


One more:(From April 11th to December 23rd 2011), this is my favorite. Because it is in the central arctic basin. You can see the water was around -1.8F while the salinity was pretty high. It is also neat how the surface layer is not as deep That warm water you see there, did not come from solar insolation, that is far to deep. But the surface profile is deep and cold.

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#4029
The_Global_Warmer

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That is the last 9 days.

1. This is cool.

2. Look at the ice along the shore, the winds are robust enough to rip the ice apart and yo can see new Nilas form and quickly get slammed into the speeding traffic. It is hard to see, but the ice coming into the frame is moving faster than the ice in front of it, expecially leading up to this, so you can see it coming in like a rocket.

3. The models keep an SLP sitting basically over the same area pumping warm air into the atlantic side and opening the Fram Firehose.


4. At the same time, the Pacific ends up more variable but definitely not going to lose much ice over there.

#4030
dabize

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Posted Image



That is the last 9 days.

1. This is cool.

2. Look at the ice along the shore, the winds are robust enough to rip the ice apart and yo can see new Nilas form and quickly get slammed into the speeding traffic. It is hard to see, but the ice coming into the frame is moving faster than the ice in front of it, expecially leading up to this, so you can see it coming in like a rocket.

3. The models keep an SLP sitting basically over the same area pumping warm air into the atlantic side and opening the Fram Firehose.

4. At the same time, the Pacific ends up more variable but definitely not going to lose much ice over there.


Where is this? Looks like the northeast Greenland coast, with the Fram Strait at right.
Is that right? Those are some fjords.........

#4031
The_Global_Warmer

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Where is this? Looks like the northeast Greenland coast, with the Fram Strait at right.
Is that right? Those are some fjords.........



yeah, that ice is hauling bleep out of the Fram Straight right now.

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That is the last 9 days.

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Forecast through 72 hours keeps the gate open.


http://www.jamstec.g...se/20120201/#z1

that link is interesting.

#4032
dabize

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yeah, that ice is hauling bleep out of the Fram Straight right now.

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That is the last 9 days.

Forecast through 72 hours keeps the gate open.


Looks like this same pattern is keeping the open area north of Svalbard and the Kara Sea from refreezing effectively - all the ice gets sucked in N of FJL before it can thicken while being replaced by warmer? waters from the open Kara/Barentsz.

#4033
TerryM

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Friv

Wonderful animations - really illustrate the flow!

Dabize

The opening you are looking at is Ittoqqortoormiit - just rolls off ones tongue, and off the coast at the bottom of the gif you can make out the northern tip of Jan Mayen.

If you want to get into Greenland Ice could I recommend http://ocean.dmi.dk/...ic/modis.uk.php

Watching the ice melt is about as exciting as watching grass grow I suppose, but every now and then spectacular stuff does occur.

#4034
TerryM

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NEW Polynya opened up yesterday (Northeast Water Polynya), undoubtedly from the strain of the Fram ice being sent south so rapidly. Don't know whether the katabatic winds more normal to the area will be enough to sustain it, but it is a regular feature off Greenland just south of Nord.

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#4035
NEOH

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Looks like the ice is making a late comeback.

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#4036
TerryM

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Looks like the ice is making a late comeback.


I believe the earlier down-tics were a failure to pick up about half of Hudson Bay with the detector. Hopefully they will adjust the graph soon - this has happened in the past, and was evident on the graphic on the days that it was occurring.

Barrow ice thickness is up this year compared to the last few probably as a result of the early 'ice hurricane' followed by abnormally low temperatures in the area. This probably will affect the breakup date. The Central Arctic, Kara and Barents are still not doing well and the melt season could be upon us.

Another low seems to be heading north into the Fram on about the same track as the previous ones that did so much damage to ice in the area. The loose ice pack north of Svalbard may be affected later today or tomorrow. More unseasonably high temperatures at Svalbard-(-5C), FJL-(-8) and NV-(-4C), don't bode well for a late re-freeze and sunlight is now penetrating the region.

Ice of the ESAS is developing fractures and at least one small polynya off the east end of O Novoya Sibir' has appeared.

Low volume, little fast ice from last season and abnormally thick ice on the Pacific side should make this melt season an exciting one.

#4037
NEOH

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I believe the earlier down-tics were a failure to pick up about half of Hudson Bay with the detector. Hopefully they will adjust the graph soon - this has happened in the past, and was evident on the graphic on the days that it was occurring.

Barrow ice thickness is up this year compared to the last few probably as a result of the early 'ice hurricane' followed by abnormally low temperatures in the area. This probably will affect the breakup date. The Central Arctic, Kara and Barents are still not doing well and the melt season could be upon us.

Another low seems to be heading north into the Fram on about the same track as the previous ones that did so much damage to ice in the area. The loose ice pack north of Svalbard may be affected later today or tomorrow. More unseasonably high temperatures at Svalbard-(-5C), FJL-(-8) and NV-(-4C), don't bode well for a late re-freeze and sunlight is now penetrating the region.

Ice of the ESAS is developing fractures and at least one small polynya off the east end of O Novoya Sibir' has appeared.

Low volume, little fast ice from last season and abnormally thick ice on the Pacific side should make this melt season an exciting one.


Great points Terry. The weather pattern this winter has certainly shown how much of an impact it has on ice (good and bad). I'm not sure the melt season is upon us just yet however.

#4038
TerryM

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Great points Terry. The weather pattern this winter has certainly shown how much of an impact it has on ice (good and bad). I'm not sure the melt season is upon us just yet however.


I'm not sure either - I know that max ice has occurred earlier than this and think that we're close to the median time of the recent era (post 2006) - but right now it's anyone's guess.

I don't know this - but wonder if weather patterns now, and near the end of the melt season have an enhanced effect. In other words a late start to the melt season or an early end to it may have a greater effect than a particularly cold or warm period during melt or freeze up.

#4039
MariettaWx

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The arctic ice extent continues to grow in large part thanks to the Kara freezing up. We need all the extent and thickness we can get at this point. There isn't a lot of time before we hit the max and melt season beings.





#4040
Vergent

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The MY ice is taking a beating

http://www.physorg.c...cap-faster.html

#4041
TerryM

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The MY ice is taking a beating

http://www.physorg.c...cap-faster.html



Same story - different graphic

http://www.nasa.gov/...thick-melt.html

#4042
The_Global_Warmer

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Current MYI Area is nearly tied with 2008 at lowest on record at this point. We really need the ice flow out of the Fram to stop.

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Now once again, after a lot of new low worsts set in 2011 for the ice pack. We are into March 1st 2012 and the is in it's worst shape yet.

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This is one of the worst ones in late Feb in the set. I recently read an arctlce on google news about shipping companies working out of the St. Lawrence Bay up North All the way along the Ungaba Pennensula.

We can also see the Pacific Ice is pretty open. That will cause some quick melt outs.

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That area has been hurting for a little while now.

And it is about to get hurt some more.

The models rail the same Atlantic areas with warm air for nearly a week, while send the MYI towards Greenland.

At the same time the SOO stays cold, so expect more ice growth there if the sun isn't an issue yet. That might help Ice Extent go up a bit, but overall it's the same old same old.

Those Temp anomalies coming up will be massive. Some of those places are progged to be +20-30C close to the North Pole, reaching the Laptev and almost ESB from the Atlantic.

#4043
Snowlover123

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Arctic Sea Ice Extent is making a pretty nice jump over recent days.

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#4044
Snowlover123

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A lot of the thick ice being lost isn't due to warming temperatures, but due to wind patterns from low pressure systems associated with the NAO/AO. The AMO also plays a significant role in Arctic Temperatures, and hopefully when the AMO flips to its negative state in the next 5-10 years we will observe a trend upward in Sea Ice Extent.

#4045
Strongbad

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In case it hasn't been asked: what, if any, affects would an ENSO neutral or weak Nino have on the Arctic sea ice this summer?

#4046
Snowlover123

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In case it hasn't been asked, what, if any, affects would an ENSO neutral or weak Nino have on the Arctic sea ice this summer?


I think that typically a La Nina would help the Arctic Sea Ice in the summer more than an El Nino, but I'm not 100% sure.

#4047
Strongbad

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Talk about a crazy year of lows and highs!...Most recent on NORSEX.

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#4048
bluewave

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A lot of the thick ice being lost isn't due to warming temperatures, but due to wind patterns from low pressure systems associated with the NAO/AO. The AMO also plays a significant role in Arctic Temperatures, and hopefully when the AMO flips to its negative state in the next 5-10 years we will observe a trend upward in Sea Ice Extent.


The warm temperatures and the wind patterns go together from the findings of recent studies.

“Our studies show that there are great natural variations in the amount of Arctic sea ice. The bad news is that there is a clear connection between temperature and the amount of sea ice. And there is no doubt that continued global warming will lead to a reduction in the amount of summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. The good news is that even with a reduction to less than 50% of the current amount of sea ice the ice will not reach a point of no return: a level where the ice no longer can regenerate itself even if the climate was to return to cooler temperatures. Finally, our studies show that the changes to a large degree are caused by the effect that temperature has on the prevailing wind systems. This has not been sufficiently taken into account when forecasting the imminent disappearance of the ice, as often portrayed in the media,” Funder says.

http://news.ku.dk/al...arctic_sea_ice/

http://www.wundergro...l?entrynum=1398

#4049
The_Global_Warmer

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Arctic Sea Ice Extent is making a pretty nice jump over recent days.





Kara Visible Ice Extent


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Sea of Okhotsk Sea Ice Extent


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The incoming pattern is going to stop the MYI from being bleed out for a little while. But also torch one side of the arctic while freezing the other side up hard.


http://raleighwx.ame...els/18zgfs.html


The Atlantic side is set to get torched, while the bering gets the cold. the other cold area is the Baffin/Eastern Canada area. Maybe that ice will get a bit thicker than in recent years. But the ice on the Atlantic side of the inner arctic is getting thrashed.


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Seeing the models continue to show the warming influence from the south combining with the quick rise in solar energy the next few weeks. I wouldn't be surprised to see the SIE continue to grow as long as the Baffin, Bering, and SOO is cold enough to maintain or grow the next 2-3 weeks.

However, after watching the MYI get flushed most of the winter plus the overall heat influx. I don't think those extra areas of ice will matter.

http://manati.orbit..../ASCATData.php/


You can see on the ASCAT data that many places look thinner than last year. most notibly the MYI in the central arctic. But also the Canadian waterways. You can see even see the SOO thin ice near the shore where a polyanas is close to forming(which it won't due to more cold).

I guess only time will really tell. I am still going with 4,500,000km2 min (+/- 500K, hedging towards the minus).

#4050
TerryM

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One of the interesting things is that Norsex shows extent to be within 1 Standard Deviation of the average.

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While NSIDC still indicates we're about 2 STD below normal.

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#4051
The_Global_Warmer

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A lot of the thick ice being lost isn't due to warming temperatures, but due to wind patterns from low pressure systems associated with the NAO/AO. The AMO also plays a significant role in Arctic Temperatures, and hopefully when the AMO flips to its negative state in the next 5-10 years we will observe a trend upward in Sea Ice Extent.



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There is definitely a coorelation between the arctic temperatures and the AMO. But since 2000 or so it seems the ice loss and arctic warming has accelerated against whatever the AMO does.



The AMO has been negative the last two months(I know it is a small sample size.) But the arctic at the same time has been way above normal.


I am not seeing a physical mechanism to what will drive the arctic to become colder and be able to sustain ice growth.

#4052
SVT450R

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Will have to see we may see a new max extent compared to recent years.

#4053
The_Global_Warmer

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Will have to see we may see a new max extent compared to recent years.



There is a good chance for a quick rise up big time given the pattern. The next two weeks look like very very cold in the Baffin Bay and could see ice expand there. The SOO has a lot of ice and is expanding still. The Bering is still doing well. The Kara has seen some huge gains here and here



The Atlantic side is going to get torched, and the bering, SOO are getting cold air.

The Baffin Bay area is getting really hit with cold. This might be a trick to getting some ice to stay in the NW Passage and other water ways this summer. It is hard to say without an official survey how well it's doing because of snow cover.

#4054
NEOH

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Wow. Certainly wasn't expecting this type of increase.

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#4055
The_Global_Warmer

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Wow. Certainly wasn't expecting this type of increase.



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I am not trying to rain on a good news parade of ice growth. The ice has growth a lot lately and all winter on the pacific side. Recently the arctic's distribution of cold air has been almost all pacific but enough cold air finally took over with a slight pattern change to ice up the Kara Sea. The Kara has gained 300-400K. Click here to see the ice there. That is really bad. And the Weather sucks for it to get thicker.

Compared to 2010 a lot of the Arctic looks like bleep. 2011 looked like bleep.

Laptev/Kara Sea/ESB/Arctic Basin

Those are some huge Cracks. Then you see the ice to the SE with the huge gaps from land to ice where very very thin ice exists. Issue with that is that it's albedo is nearly non-existent.


Svalbard ice is wretched.

That area typically has thick first year ice.

Here is 2011


That ice is in terrible shape. For one, the coverage area extremely depleted. And it's very very gray. Which indicates it is very thin.

Here is one more view of the 2012 situation, that is horrible. That ice is almost just whips at the bottom. You can zoom in and see. It is extremely splotchy and looks like it started to freeze up, then get's stuck in the mud.

Here is 2010


http://raleighwx.ame...yNHGFSLoop.html

It will be interesting to see how much the SOO and Bering hang on and if the Bering ice has an impact on the pacific side of the arctic basin.

#4056
TerryM

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We've got another large cyclonic system poised to run up the east coast of Greenland, it may be my imagination, but each one seems larger than the preceding one. Temperatures at Svalbard of 2C (36F), Franz Josef Land -2C (29F) and Novaya Zemlya -1C (30F) are already far above normal, and the heat keeps reaching further east with Ostrov Gologmjannyj (rolls off the tongue) at the eastern end of the Kara Sea checking in at -3C (27F).

Don't know where this low will head after Nord (assuming it follows the others northward), but it will drag a lot of warm water with it and the high winds will flush even more MYI through Fram Strait. The Central Arctic Ice will take more of a beating and temperatures just about have to increase on this side of the Arctic.

It looks as though Russia made the right bet when it invested so much on the dream of a seasonally open Northern Passage, and that this year things may open up very early.

The Pacific side is still experiencing much colder than normal anomalies and I can almost imagine a scenario in which the Bearing Sea is the final bottle neck for this year's Arctic Shipping.

Lot's of excitement in the weeks ahead!

#4057
NEOH

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We've got another large cyclonic system poised to run up the east coast of Greenland, it may be my imagination, but each one seems larger than the preceding one. Temperatures at Svalbard of 2C (36F), Franz Josef Land -2C (29F) and Novaya Zemlya -1C (30F) are already far above normal, and the heat keeps reaching further east with Ostrov Gologmjannyj (rolls off the tongue) at the eastern end of the Kara Sea checking in at -3C (27F).

Don't know where this low will head after Nord (assuming it follows the others northward), but it will drag a lot of warm water with it and the high winds will flush even more MYI through Fram Strait. The Central Arctic Ice will take more of a beating and temperatures just about have to increase on this side of the Arctic.

It looks as though Russia made the right bet when it invested so much on the dream of a seasonally open Northern Passage, and that this year things may open up very early.

The Pacific side is still experiencing much colder than normal anomalies and I can almost imagine a scenario in which the Bearing Sea is the final bottle neck for this year's Arctic Shipping.

Lot's of excitement in the weeks ahead!


The weather pattern has been rough on the (atlantic) ice all season... but much easier on the pacific side. As we've seen, even short term favorable patterns have allowed for explosive ice growth however.

If there was any $ to be made on that bet the Chinese would be the first to capitalize. Risky (possibly short term) venture to say the least

#4058
bluewave

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This may be the greatest winter temperature point departure that we have seen in Arctic so far of around +15 to +16C







#4059
The_Global_Warmer

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As expected PIOMAS shows a falling behind of the mean and 2010 and 2011.

More than semantics. It continues the trend of lower ice volume at the start of the melt season.

#4060
SVT450R

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Anyone have any new info on when jaxa will be back online.




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