http://www.americanwx.com/bb Thu, 23 Feb 2012 04:12:40 +0000 5 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/12807-plains-weather-discussion/ I thought I would start a thread to cover one of the last ignored regions in central/western. Members seem to be few and far between--but I think this region deserves a thread of its own. Cmichweather up in the land of flat and no trees (Grand Forks, ND) can agree. Thu, 23 Feb 2012 04:12:40 +0000 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/12807-plains-weather-discussion/ http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32608-first-high-risk-of-2012/
I'm gonna go March 18th (day of my birthday) in the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley.]]> Thu, 23 Feb 2012 04:03:11 +0000 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32608-first-high-risk-of-2012/ http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/25727-mountain-west-discussion/ Since we will have some non-summer type weather coming in, I figured we would start a new thread. It looks like on Wednesday and Thursday a cold front will come in with some upslope rain and drizzle. 43 and drizzle may be a possibility. Thu, 23 Feb 2012 02:42:43 +0000 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/25727-mountain-west-discussion/ http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/30546-ne-ok-nw-ar-se-ks-sw-mo-winter-20112012/
Energy in the SW is developing into a major winter storm on the last two NAM runs. Looks like it could be a nasty ice storm for those just south of the snow line, especially with these winds.


]]> Wed, 22 Feb 2012 22:34:14 +0000 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/30546-ne-ok-nw-ar-se-ks-sw-mo-winter-20112012/ http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32841-february-26-27-northern-plains-winter-stormblizzard/
This system has the potential to be the biggest event of the season for the northern plains and whats encouraging for this system is we won't have to deal with split flow issues and gulf moisture shoudn't be a problem.]]> Wed, 22 Feb 2012 19:37:41 +0000 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32841-february-26-27-northern-plains-winter-stormblizzard/ http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/23780-texasnew-mexicolouisianamexico-obs-and-discussion-thread-part-3/ III. Can we break this heat and drought...

http://www.americanw...2/page__st__980]]> Wed, 22 Feb 2012 17:03:07 +0000 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/23780-texasnew-mexicolouisianamexico-obs-and-discussion-thread-part-3/ http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/22517-alaskawestern-canada-obs-and-discussion/ Started this thread to see how many people would be interested as we approach the winter storm season where HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS are not all that uncommon. I have also noticed that when we get a seasonally deep 500mb low dropping southeast up here as it tends to eject into the lower 48 active weather usually follows with decent severe weather outbreaks . Wed, 22 Feb 2012 14:04:25 +0000 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/22517-alaskawestern-canada-obs-and-discussion/ http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32785-front-rangehigh-plainsnorthern-plains-cyclone-feb-20-21/ Well this has been an interesting event to watch develop. Guidance had been suggestive of this for a while now, but there certainly has been a late trend towards something much more interesting with a rapidly developing PV induced cyclone across the Front Range ejecting into the High Plains. Immediate cyclogenesis as this PV ejects the Rockies suggests strong vertical PV stretching. Strong height falls might stall this system briefly. GOing to be an interesting event across western NE and portions of the Front Range as the front establishes itself and N flow sets up. Wed, 22 Feb 2012 05:19:22 +0000 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32785-front-rangehigh-plainsnorthern-plains-cyclone-feb-20-21/ http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32812-possible-severe-weather-on-thursday-feb-23/

I just became aware of this for Thursday for the Significant Tornado Parameter. Please chime in.]]> Tue, 21 Feb 2012 19:36:08 +0000 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32812-possible-severe-weather-on-thursday-feb-23/ http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32793-feb-20th-severe-event/ ..KS/OK TO MO/NWRN AR

STRONG DYNAMICS/HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF THE
POTENT CO/NM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT CYCLONICALLY CURVED
70-90 KT MIDLEVEL JET. STRONG DPVA AND KINEMATICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WOULD NORMALLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF GREATER COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE SHORT WAVELENGTH BETWEEN A TROUGH EXITING THE ERN
SEABOARD AND THE PLAINS SYSTEM TODAY WILL NOT ALLOW SUFFICIENT TIME
FOR ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN...AS AN INTRUSION OF CP AIR OCCURRED INTO
THE GULF ON SUNDAY. THUS...WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS
THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR PRECLUDING THE INTRODUCTION OF A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK AREA AT THIS TIME. AT BEST...LOW-MID 40S
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT NWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN OK BY AFTERNOON
WITH AROUND 40 F VALUES INTO ERN KS. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-8 C PER KM/ ATTENDANT TO THE COMPACT TROUGH
AND DIABATIC HEATING WILL RESULT IN MUCAPE REMAINING BELOW 500 J/KG.

INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS
INTO PARTS OF WRN OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH GREATER LIKELIHOOD
FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 21-00Z ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR IN OK AND NNWWD INTO CENTRAL KS AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES
THE DRY LINE. MODELS SUGGEST THIS LATTER TIMING COINCIDES WITH
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE MIDLEVEL
JET AND DPVA SPREADING ATOP THE CORRIDOR OF GREATER...THOUGH
WEAK...MOISTURE RETURN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS/HODOGRAPHS INDICATE
ACTIVITY WILL BE LOW-TOPPED AND FAST MOVING /ENEWD AT 45-50
KT/...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT RESULTING IN BOWING
STRUCTURES AND SUPERCELLS.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SPEED
OF THE STORMS...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED HAIL. DESPITE THE WEAK MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG A 40-50 KT SLY LLJ SUGGESTS A NON-ZERO
THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST AS WELL.

DURING THIS EVENING...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR A GREATER THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE EVENTUAL NEED FOR A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT
RISK/HIGHER PROBABILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK/SERN KS INTO SWRN
MO/NWRN AR. RESIDUAL STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS /WSWLY AT 55-65 KT AT 700 MB/ AS THE
PLAINS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED AFTER 00Z. HOWEVER...THE
LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY AGAIN PRECLUDES THE INCLUSION OF A
SLIGHT RISK AREA.]]> Tue, 21 Feb 2012 04:15:42 +0000 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32793-feb-20th-severe-event/