Mid Atlantic

February storm threat discussion

Thu, 23 Feb 2012 04:03:16 +0000

Figured we should get a new thread to discuss our changes for next month... there are some hints of the pattern becoming more favorable for cold/snow after the start of the month via a +PNA and -EPO signals.

2012 Winter Banter Thread #3

Thu, 23 Feb 2012 03:16:25 +0000

New thread been give

Looking Ahead to Spring 2012

Thu, 23 Feb 2012 02:48:10 +0000

General spring chatter ftw?

And, on a more specific question note...

This will be my 3rd spring since moving to the MA, and am still getting a handle on the weather patterns here. I think it is a factual statement that we don't get the same numbers or ferocity of severe storms as one might see across the south, midwest, and certainly the plain states. But presumably there are weather patterns that setup that are conducive to spring storms over this way, at least more conducive than I have observed in the previous two springs.

While I am not as big a fan of severe storms as Ian or Mark, for instance, I do love a good spring storm season (living in the mid-South (Memphis/Nashville) for 13 years prior to moving here was a good spot to be in for severe storms).

So...while this winter has been pretty crappy for snow lovers, does a moderate 2nd-year Nina offer a greater chance at seeing a more robust spring severe weather season than we have seen the last few years? I guess I am asking what the "general" atmospheric regime is that is most conducive to a good storm season in the MA.

If I am asking that in a manner that is less than bright, my apologies ahead of time.

Thanks.

---Aaron

My March CWG outlook

Thu, 23 Feb 2012 02:07:45 +0000

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/march-outlook-warmer-than-average-low-snow-chances/2012/02/22/gIQAX00RTR_blog.html#pagebreak

Feb 30 Snowstorm thread

Thu, 23 Feb 2012 00:45:43 +0000

lets try this again

Spring 2012 SKYWARN Talks

Wed, 22 Feb 2012 21:37:52 +0000

Hey everyone. It's that time of the year again...SKYWARN talks. The new list of talks for this year can be found HERE (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/skywarn/classes.html).

I will be helping out with the Basics 1 course on March 26 in Carroll County, and Master of Disaster is working the Montgomery County event. Hope to see some of you folks in the coming months!

Mid Atlantic Met Class Thread

Wed, 22 Feb 2012 16:18:33 +0000

I think this is a good idea for a thread. I think some folks are afraid to ask basic questions about models and weather for fear of getting ridiculed. There are alot of finer details that I really want to understand better but it never seems appropriate to ask during storm threads.

Here are some guidelines I would like to have in the thread:

1. Let's try not to flood the thread with too many active questions at a time. It shouldn't take too long to resolve each one before moving on.
2. No banter please. Just Q&A and teaching/learning here.
3. No questions are too stupid to ask. More knowledge improves post content across the board.
4. All topics are fine. Not just winter. Severe, topical, teleconnections, ENSO, anything is welcome.
5. If someone posts a link in response to a question, read the link before asking anymore questions. Don't be lazy.
6. Do not reply to a question or be on the teaching side of a discussion if you don't have a clear understanding of the question at hand. Bad information is at the root of alot of bad posts here.

Ok, since it's my thread, I'm asking the first question. Below is a common sounding post and I don't know how to read it correctly at all. To narrow down my question, I know what the wind axis, hpa axis, and temp axis are. I do not know how to property interpret the colored lines and I don't understand what the light grey grid represents.

February Short Range Obs/Discussion Thread

Wed, 22 Feb 2012 16:17:53 +0000

Feb 1st is going to look like this:

Attached Images

Hampton Roads Obs/Disco

Wed, 22 Feb 2012 07:01:12 +0000

Fozz, on 4 February 2011 - 11:37 PM, said:

Its really bad winters over

Since the Richmond folks seem to want their own thread I guess i'll make one for Hampton Roads. I personally didn't mind having a single thread.

The weekend is looking pretty nice for us Normal temps and sun!

December-January 5th Warmest in DC History

Tue, 21 Feb 2012 17:41:52 +0000

January 2012 averaged 40.7 degrees at DCA, making it the 18th warmest January in DC history. However, December 2011 and January 2012 combined averaged 42.9 degrees, making it the 5th warmest December-January in DC history. Looking at the four December-January combinations that beat the last two months does not suggest February will see much cold or snow. Specifically, December 1931-January 1932 was the warmest combination, at 45.5 degrees, and was followed by a February that was 42.9 degrees with only a trace of snow. December 1949-January 1950 (also a La Nina) was the second warmest combination, at 45.0 degrees, and was followed by a February that was 38.7 degrees, also with a trace of snow. December 1889-January 1890 was the third warmest combination, at 44.7 degrees, and was followed by a February that was 43.4 degrees with 1.5 inches of snow. December 2001-January 2002 was the fourth warmest combination, at 43.6 degrees, and was followed by a February that was 42.6 degrees with 0.5 inches of snow. However, the 6th warmest December-January combination offers a glimmer of hope for snow lovers. That combination occurred just five years ago, when December 2006-January 2007 averaged 42.5 degrees, but was followed by a February that was only 30.9 degrees with 5.9 inches of snow. Of course, that was an El Nino year, but still.