NYC Metro

Early Spring Warm Up Ahead Of Late Week Storm

Thu, 23 Feb 2012 04:15:59 +0000

The models are still a bit far out in time for specific details just yet, but this looks like an early
spring warm up and cold frontal passage later this week. The specific evolution of the trough
along with the strength and exact track of the low will determine the outcome. This has the
general look of a pattern that could produce temperatures in the 60's for parts of the area.
We could also be looking at wind event and low topped squall set up for some areas
from the MA northward. The models are advertising a warm surge ahead of the front with
a strong jet exit region nearby. The closer the surface low tracks tracks to the area the stronger
the storm potential would be.

February Banter Thread

Thu, 23 Feb 2012 02:26:09 +0000

wow seems like everyone has given up on the 5-6 event and this winter- anyways the 6z DGEX has the 5-6 event further north with accumulating precip over nyc metro

http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06108.gif

2M temps at or below freezing over us

http://raleighwx.ame...s2mtemps108.gif

850's cold enough too

http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPUS108.gif

6z GFS now has a storm developing down south ( after the weak storm slides south sunday into monday) and going up the coast offshore next tuesday - heard the euro had a similar storm

http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06150.gif

Potential Winter Storm 2/29 -3/1

Thu, 23 Feb 2012 02:03:04 +0000

This storm has been showing up on the GFS model runs in some shape or form in this time frame along the east coast for several model runs in a row with cold air in place and strong high pressure to the north this time around - will keep updating topic title and description to update the threat level and accurate storm date(s)

Lets discuss

http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12228.gif

http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KEWR

2012 enso thread

Thu, 23 Feb 2012 00:37:21 +0000

it could linger for a third year or become an el nino...I'll start with el nino years...there are 19 el nino years since 1950...hopefully next year will be one...these are the years and strength...
winter...peak ONI...peak period...
1977-78.....0.7.....ONDJF
1976-77.....0.8.....OND
1969-70.....0.8.....OND
1951-52.....0.8.....SON
2004-05.....0.9.....ASO
1963-64.....1.0.....ONDJ
1968-69.....1.0.....DJFM

2006-07.....1.1.....ONDJ
1986-87.....1.3.....JFM
1994-95.....1.3.....NDJ
2002-03.....1.5.....OND
1965-66.....1.6.....OND
1987-88.....1.6.....JASO

1957-58.....1.7.....DJF
2009-10.....1.7.....DJF
1991-92.....1.8.....DJF
1972-73.....2.1.....NDJ
1982-83.....2.3.....NDJF
1997-98.....2.5.....ONDJ
the top seven had ...three great winters...three very good ones and one mediocre...
the middle six had one great winter...three mediocre and two duds...
the bottom six had two great winters...one good and three duds...
Some forecasts are for a neutral enso next winter...I'll post the neutral years another time...

Todays almanac

Wed, 22 Feb 2012 13:48:07 +0000

NYC's almanac for 8/1.
Highest max. Lowest max. Highest min. Lowest min. Max. Precipitation.
100 in 1933....68 in 1923....82 in 1917....59 in 1895....2.85" in 1878
..98 in 1917....71 in 1926....79 in 1999....59 in 1964....2.10" in 1971
..98 in 1955....72 in 1978....79 in 2006....60 in 1891....1.95" in 1927
..98 in 1999....73 in 1878....78 in 1979....60 in 1903....1.70" in 1889
..96 in 2002....73 in 1895....77 in 1904....60 in 1923....1.36" in 1963
..95 in 2006....73 in 1948....77 in 1944....61 in 1921....1.15" in 1919

More active pattern on the way, but probably not snowier for I-95

Wed, 22 Feb 2012 01:06:16 +0000

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/484

Much of this winter we’ve seen a significant lack in major storm systems in the United States. A simple look at the NOAA watch/warning map for the US throughout the past few months reveals that weather events have been MIA in North America. This is largely because intense mid latitude cyclones feed off of baroclinicity and thermal gradients — we have NOT seen that most of the winter. Why? Temperature anomalies in North America tell the story:
Below are the temperature anomalies for January 2012 — if one were to produce a December 2011 or February 2012 map, it would look similar, as the same general temp pattern has prevailed.

Note the large expanse of warmth virtually everywhere – very little in the way of thermal gradients/temp contrasts. As a result, short waves have been relatively weak, and unable to produce much snow in the Great Lakes/Northeast. Furthermore, without strong low pressure systems, cold air cannot pour southeastward, and Lake Effect snow has been absent for the most part b/c of this. No polar outbreaks –> no lake effect snow, and no strong cyclones –> no arctic outbreaks in the Northeast. It’s been a benign, boring, winter from a meteorological stand-point in North America.
Not the case for Asia and Europe – that’s for sure. The AO transition in mid Jan yielded the development of a blocking feature on the Asian side of the north pole, resulting in record breaking cold and snows across Eurasia, down to Rome, Italy. As we move into the future, that pattern is changing, with a rise in AO values into the positive territory, meaning a return to lower than normal heights in the northern latitudes. What it also means is arctic air will FINALLY enter our side of the globe, with Canada becoming drastically chillier over the coming week.
Note below, the 10 day temp anomaly forecast for Canada. A major change from the map posted earlier. Believe it or not – COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR will overspread most of Canada in the week 1 to week 2 period. Unfortunately for the Northeast, a positive AO and NAO also means the Southeast ridge is robust, and one can see by the warmer anomalies in SE Canada, the resistance to this arctic air.

The above image is the 8-10 day ECMWF and GFS model forecast. Notice the strong SE ridge, typical of a La Nina, but also the big time negative height anomalies dominating in Canada, and down into the West/Plains.
The PNA will be transitioning negative over the coming week, another aspect typical for La Ninas. It seems we’re entering a pattern which is more normal for LA NINA event, one which many of us thought would be present the bulk of this winter.
Although we’re going to see temp anomalies reverse drastically in North America, as already mentioned, it’ll be difficult (once again) to get sustained cold into the Northeast. So in a local sense, the pattern for the I-95 BOS-DCA corridor may not change much at all due to the resistance from a strong SE ridge. However, the larger scale North American regime is undergoing that change, which will finally get an intense baroclinic zone going. We’re likely to see numerous, strong low pressure systems propagating SW-NE from the Plains into the Great Lakes/Interior Northeast, which could put down snows in the Plains, Lakes, and maybe interior New England. The inland storm tracks still means no snow for the big cities of the Northeast.
Surface temperature anomalies for Marches which featured a weak La Nina in place look like this — note the similarity to the above forecasts, big cold in Canada, into the West, and across the northern tier of the United States. Ridging in the South/East.

When we examine Marches with a slightly positive or greater AO values, this is what we get:

A similar picture, with cold in the north, warm in the South.
The one wildcard is the MJO — tropical forcing now in favorable phases for cold in Northeast, but since other teleconnectors are unfavorable — positive AO, positive NAO, negative PNA, the arctic air is likely to just “bounce” in and out of the region, if we get any at all. More probably is moderated shots of cold air behind storm systems, nowhere near as cold as what the Mid-west/West may see.
In closing, the pattern for the next few weeks into the month of March:
1.) Major reversal in North American temp anomalies, with arctic air building in Canada, should yield a strengthening baroclinic zone with powerful lows moving SW to NE across the United States, dropping snow in the MID-WEST, LAKES, and INTERIOR NORTHEAST. Lakes effect snow may get initiated as well.
2.) Continued warm pattern for I-95/East Coast due to the SE ridge and other unfavorable teleconnectors. We’ll see more cold shots due to the stronger lows moving to our NW, but the poor tracks means continued no snow.
3.) Early March regime of cold West/northern Plains/Lakes should prevail. Warmth in the southern plains, southeast and Northeast coastal plain.
4.) Nothing can be ruled out in weather, but chances are against a snowstorm in the I-95 corridor the next few weeks. If it does happen, it’ll be a thread the needle situation given there’s no downstream NAO blocking, or strong ridging in the Western US. Not much reason to forecast any change in the terrible snow pattern of winter 2011-2012. Will NYC see a 6″+ snow event this winter? It doesn’t look good for the next few weeks, but on the bright side, some more exciting times ahead in terms of tracking weather. Strong lows means big winds, severe weather in the Southeast US, snows to the NW of the storm systems.
5.) At this juncture, March should come in like a lion in the North and West, and like a lamb along the East coast.

DT, Henry M, Steve D, JB Talk

Tue, 21 Feb 2012 20:44:41 +0000

If you wanna talk about the four stooges, please keep it in here and not the main storm thread. Thank you.

Highest percentage above normal seasonal snowfall excluding winter of 95-96

Tue, 21 Feb 2012 13:56:39 +0000

As it seems the new york metro area has had quite an unbelievable run of luck over the past several years with blockbuster snow events, I am curious to see how totals compared to average for those who take careful measurements in their own back yards each season have stacked up.

I know some areas in Upton's forecast area had to be two to three hundred percent of average whether it was last winter (southern ct for example) or the year before perhaps although i guess that borders on territory more likely in the philly metro area but if anyone down there cares to chime in, please do.

I know what the offical metro sites (central park, jfk, lga,bdr) recorded but I suspect at times measurement issues either over or under with all those "official sites". Where ever I have lived for the past twenty seven winters I have taken detailed measurements for the whole season and I suspect I am not alone.

Any posts would be greatly appreciated.

One of the warmest winters on record in Central Park

Tue, 21 Feb 2012 12:54:16 +0000

Central Park has had an almost unprecedentadly(sp?) warm winter this year. Just how warm? Well, ranking all years for the period December 1-February 16, we get this...

Rank  AveT   Winter
  1	41.3  2001-2002
  2	41.0  1931-1932
  3	40.1  2011-2012
  4	39.3  1949-1950
  5	39.2  1998-1999
  6	39.1  1990-1991
  7	38.9  1997-1998
  8	38.4  1948-1949
  9	38.1  2005-2006
10	37.6  1952-1953

3rd! Yup, 3rd!

Here are the 10 warmest listings (December 1- February 28):

Rank  AveT   Winter
  1	41.6  2001-2002
  2	40.2  1931-1932
  3	39.6  1997-1998
  4	39.1  1990-1991
  5	38.6  1998-1999
  6	38.5  1948-1949
  7	38.1  1952-1953
  8	37.9  1982-1983
  9	37.7  1996-1997
10	37.6  1949-1950

February 19-20 Potential Bomb Part II

Mon, 20 Feb 2012 03:44:13 +0000

As we all await tonight's 00z suite, we've been given a tremendous array of solutions over the past 24 hrs. It's going to be an interesting few days.

As usual please keep the banter to a minimum. If you are going to say something about the models, use some reasoning.

It starts with the SREFs momentarily. Good luck, and wishing you all feet of wind driven snow.