Wx Forecasting and Discussion

Moore, OK Tornado 5/20/2013

Wed, 22 May 2013 19:04:25 +0000

Discuss Moore, OK tornado here...

Attached Images

GOES 13 Issues

Wed, 22 May 2013 17:40:20 +0000

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1215Z WED MAY 22 2013

GOES-E/GOES-13 UPDATE FROM NESDIS...

1150Z UPDATE#4: RECOVERY EFFORTS FOR GOES-13 CONTINUE AND THE
SPACECRAFT HEALTH AND SAFETY ARE NOMINAL. GOES-14 IS BEING
ACTIVATED AND THE FIRST IMAGES WILL BE AVAILABLE AROUND 0500 UTC
ON THU MAY 23RD 2013.

1035Z UPDATE#3: INITIAL GOES-13 RECOVERY PROCEDURE WAS
UNSUCCESSFUL. RETURN TO SERVICE TIME LINE BEING REEVALUATED.

0840Z UPDATE#2: GOES-13 ANOMALY STATUS HAS NOT CHANGED, THE
ENGINEER TEAM IS COMMANDING THE SATELLITE AFTER CONSULTING THE
SUPPORT TEAM. COMMANDING WILL TAKE APPROX. 5 HOURS AND IF
SUCCESSFUL SHOULD RETURN TO SERVICE SHORTLY AFTER THAT.

0630Z UPDATE#1: THE GOES-13 ANOMALY CONTINUES AND THE ENGINEERS
ARE ON SITE. BARRING FURTHER ANOMALIES THE EXPECTED RETURN TO
SERVICES IS APPROX. 14 HOURS FROM THIS UPDATE.

CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP

Devastating tornado strikes Joplin, Missouri

Wed, 22 May 2013 16:49:16 +0000

Posting this here as it may become a story of national interest...

Obviously we have to wait for the survey but it looks like it may have been a violent tornado. The tornado appears to have tracked across the southern portion of the city and quite wide. It only happened a few hours ago and there are already reports of 24 deaths, but that number will probably rise.

Joplin has a population of about 50,000. This is the latest example of a major tornado striking a densely populated area, an all too frequent occurrence this year.

We have a member from Joplin by the name of JoMo. He was posting in the severe weather thread until the tornado approached. It is unclear whether he was hit but we have not heard from him since the tornado struck. Please keep him in your thoughts.

East Pacific Hurricane Season 2013

Wed, 22 May 2013 15:39:28 +0000

East Pac Hurricane Season 2013 starts in just 2 days, and there's not even a thread for it yet! Where is Josh?

This little guy has the potential to become the first TD of the season, although based on various model projections of 850 mb vort / UL divergence, it could pulse and fizzle out several times before developing a closed surface low. All of the major models are developing something, but it is projected to remain weak. Nothing out of NHC yet...

OKC KFOR

Wed, 22 May 2013 13:42:52 +0000

Anyone else astonished at how horrible this Mike Morgan guy is? How does this guy have a NWA certification?

Among other things, he just instructed viewers to get in their car and try to outrun a multivortex wedge tornado (no, I am not kidding). He also has not clue what rotation looks like on radar and I have to wonder if he even knows what a mesocyclone is.

2013 Spring Medium Range Discussion

Wed, 22 May 2013 13:38:40 +0000

Since it's November 1, I thought it would be worthwhile to get this thread started again. There a New England threat for late next week already on the agenda. With MJO in P2-P4 for the next two weeks, but a strong -NAO, there is some chance of coastal lows, but overall, we're looking at cool weather on the coasts with warmth in center part of the country, but lower than climo chance for snow in the East.

May 2013 forecast contest -- temperatures

Wed, 22 May 2013 08:26:47 +0000

Welcome back, forecasters, as we tackle the challenge of May. I have a new feature to introduce, called "Bragging Rights Bonus." It is a separate question that does not give you any points, just a warm glow inside. Meanwhile, the main business is to forecast temperature anomalies at six locations, in 0.1 F deg departures from 1981-2010 normals, as verified by the NWS on CF6 tables available in "climate" section of data by states on the NWS website as well as other places such as regional forecast center web pages. You can read updates at various intervals on this thread too.

The six locations are identified in this template, use this for entering (if you're new, wait until a few people have entered, you'll see how we roll as my daughter Betty White says on that commercial.)

DCA ... NYC ... BOS ... ... ... ORD ... ATL ... IAH

The "Bragging Rights Bonus" (entry of course quite optional) is as follows: Predict the date of the most severe outbreak in May and give an approximate location for the most severe storms involved. This will only be impressive if (.a.) you're right and (.b.) it isn't May 1st. Late entrants note, mentioning a past event will just be plain passive-aggressive.

OTHER CONTEST ALERT -- This is not the only contest you can enter around here. On the Lakes/OV forum, you can predict days over 90F at various Midwest and plains locations. Check it out. The deadline for that one is also May 1st.

Mallow, are we going to have a tropical storm season forecast contest? Anyone, are we going to have a tropical storm season?

Do you guys use Smoothing for Grlevel 3?

Tue, 21 May 2013 06:54:05 +0000

Do you guys use Smoothing for Grlevel3 why or why not? and picture of it if possible.

2013 ENSO Mega Thread

Mon, 20 May 2013 20:06:10 +0000

I miss having the ENSO guys in one spot. Tracking, predicting, and talking all things ENSO.

With the big time recent warming, it's time we get those guys back in here.

ENSO 1 and 2 has seen big time surface warming.

Badly Written Weather Article

Mon, 20 May 2013 17:48:17 +0000

This article is terrible.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/19/us-usa-oklahoma-tornado-idUSBRE94I0E020130519